CEOs Say They Are Bracing for a Recession—Even as the Economy Remains Strong

Federal Reserve Chairman

Jerome Powell

expressed confidence in the central bank’s ability to curtail high prices without also spurring a large increase in unemployment, though he added that there is little modern precedent for doing so.

“If you look in the history book and find it—no, you can’t,” Mr. Powell said of such a balancing act. “I think we are in a world of firsts.”

Wells Fargo CEO

Charlie Scharf

said it would be difficult for the U.S. to avoid some form of recession but added that he was hopeful such a downturn, if it occurs, would be mild.

“The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is one, is short and not all that deep,” he said.

U.S. stocks swung wildly this week on concerns about consumer spending and whether rising interest rates, meant to slow inflation, could tip the economy into a downturn. Some executives at the Journal’s event said a recession could cause pain for less established companies but would likely help rein in what they characterized as excesses across the economy.

“Why are 12-year-olds who can code making $300,000 on their first day out of college? That’s not right. Why are companies with $10 million in revenue being valued at a billion dollars?” said

Jonathan Bush,

a veteran healthcare executive and the founder and CEO of Zus Health, in an interview Thursday. “There’s a tragic aspect of recessions, of course, but a very valuable cleansing.”

Of the thousands of companies in healthcare, including many that have launched during the pandemic, some were unlikely to survive a downturn, Mr. Bush said. But the factors that have driven prices up in some industries—such as higher commodity costs and a shortage of labor—could take time to correct, executives said.

Barry Biffle,

chief executive of Frontier Group Holdings Inc., said in an interview Tuesday that airfares could remain high well into the future. Airline fares surged 18.6% in April from a month earlier, the fastest rise on record, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.

Airlines have struggled to increase the number of flights due to delays in aircraft deliveries and a shortage of available pilots. “The supply-and-demand imbalance, if you will, that’s enabling much higher fares is probably going to be here for many years to come,” Mr. Biffle said.

Discussions at the Future of Everything Festival went well beyond the economy, touching on topics including the pandemic, fashion, the war in Ukraine, the future of abortion rights and the state of work.

Moderna Inc.

CEO

Stéphane Bancel

said Thursday that he recommended a fourth Covid-19 vaccine dose to those who met eligibility criteria. He also urged people to focus on the number of hospitalizations, not caseloads, while cautioning that tallies of new infections are likely significant undercounts.

“We need to be careful as citizens,” Mr. Bancel said. “The number of reported cases is massively underestimated,” particularly as many people self-test at home or experience only mild symptoms.

Rochelle Walensky,

director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said much remains unknown about long Covid, the condition in which people have lingering symptoms weeks, months or a year after infection. Dr. Walensky said vaccinated individuals tended to have fewer long-term symptoms than the unvaccinated. But she said it isn’t clear whether certain variants of the virus are more likely to lead to long Covid cases.

As the virus continues to morph, Dr. Walensky said the CDC must evaluate the efficacy of vaccines, therapeutics and tests for each new variant.

“We have to move the messaging while everybody is very anxious for it to be stable,” she said. “We have to move the messaging as the variant has changed, and that’s hard to do.”

Many speakers expressed optimism that innovations could lower the cost of internet services, improve entertainment or even make produce sweeter. Actress and choreographer

Rosie Perez

said streaming platforms offered more opportunities for people of diverse backgrounds to make decisions behind the camera, leading to more women and people of color on screen, too.

Hiroki Koga,

co-founder and CEO of Oishii, an indoor, vertical farming company that grows high-end strawberries, said advancements in robotics and automation are making it easier to harvest produce indoors at cheaper costs.

“Current agriculture as we do it today is no longer sustainable,” said Mr. Koga, who predicted that in the coming decades, indoor farming might lost its novelty and become the norm.

Write to Chip Cutter at chip.cutter@wsj.com

Federal Reserve Chairman

Jerome Powell

expressed confidence in the central bank’s ability to curtail high prices without also spurring a large increase in unemployment, though he added that there is little modern precedent for doing so.

“If you look in the history book and find it—no, you can’t,” Mr. Powell said of such a balancing act. “I think we are in a world of firsts.”

Wells Fargo CEO

Charlie Scharf

said it would be difficult for the U.S. to avoid some form of recession but added that he was hopeful such a downturn, if it occurs, would be mild.

“The fact that everyone is so strong going into this should hopefully provide a cushion such that whatever recession there is, if there is one, is short and not all that deep,” he said.

U.S. stocks swung wildly this week on concerns about consumer spending and whether rising interest rates, meant to slow inflation, could tip the economy into a downturn. Some executives at the Journal’s event said a recession could cause pain for less established companies but would likely help rein in what they characterized as excesses across the economy.

“Why are 12-year-olds who can code making $300,000 on their first day out of college? That’s not right. Why are companies with $10 million in revenue being valued at a billion dollars?” said

Jonathan Bush,

a veteran healthcare executive and the founder and CEO of Zus Health, in an interview Thursday. “There’s a tragic aspect of recessions, of course, but a very valuable cleansing.”

Of the thousands of companies in healthcare, including many that have launched during the pandemic, some were unlikely to survive a downturn, Mr. Bush said. But the factors that have driven prices up in some industries—such as higher commodity costs and a shortage of labor—could take time to correct, executives said.

Barry Biffle,

chief executive of Frontier Group Holdings Inc., said in an interview Tuesday that airfares could remain high well into the future. Airline fares surged 18.6% in April from a month earlier, the fastest rise on record, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.

Airlines have struggled to increase the number of flights due to delays in aircraft deliveries and a shortage of available pilots. “The supply-and-demand imbalance, if you will, that’s enabling much higher fares is probably going to be here for many years to come,” Mr. Biffle said.

Discussions at the Future of Everything Festival went well beyond the economy, touching on topics including the pandemic, fashion, the war in Ukraine, the future of abortion rights and the state of work.

Moderna Inc.

CEO

Stéphane Bancel

said Thursday that he recommended a fourth Covid-19 vaccine dose to those who met eligibility criteria. He also urged people to focus on the number of hospitalizations, not caseloads, while cautioning that tallies of new infections are likely significant undercounts.

“We need to be careful as citizens,” Mr. Bancel said. “The number of reported cases is massively underestimated,” particularly as many people self-test at home or experience only mild symptoms.

Rochelle Walensky,

director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said much remains unknown about long Covid, the condition in which people have lingering symptoms weeks, months or a year after infection. Dr. Walensky said vaccinated individuals tended to have fewer long-term symptoms than the unvaccinated. But she said it isn’t clear whether certain variants of the virus are more likely to lead to long Covid cases.

As the virus continues to morph, Dr. Walensky said the CDC must evaluate the efficacy of vaccines, therapeutics and tests for each new variant.

“We have to move the messaging while everybody is very anxious for it to be stable,” she said. “We have to move the messaging as the variant has changed, and that’s hard to do.”

Many speakers expressed optimism that innovations could lower the cost of internet services, improve entertainment or even make produce sweeter. Actress and choreographer

Rosie Perez

said streaming platforms offered more opportunities for people of diverse backgrounds to make decisions behind the camera, leading to more women and people of color on screen, too.

Hiroki Koga,

co-founder and CEO of Oishii, an indoor, vertical farming company that grows high-end strawberries, said advancements in robotics and automation are making it easier to harvest produce indoors at cheaper costs.

“Current agriculture as we do it today is no longer sustainable,” said Mr. Koga, who predicted that in the coming decades, indoor farming might lost its novelty and become the norm.

Write to Chip Cutter at chip.cutter@wsj.com