Retail Sales Report to Show Consumer Spending Ahead of Holiday Season

Retail sales—which include spending on cars, wine and ottomans as well as meals at restaurants—have generally risen in recent months amid higher prices and rising interest rates that can make purchases, particularly big ones, more expensive.

Retail sales were unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in September compared with August. They increased 0.4% in August from July. Spending declined in categories linked to big purchases such as televisions, sofas and golf clubs. Purchases at electronics and appliance stores declined 0.8% in September while spending at furniture stores fell 0.7%.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal estimate that retail sales rose 1.2% in October from September.

Higher gasoline prices and increased auto sales, reflecting easing supply chains, could boost October retail spending, said Veronica Clark, an economist at

Citigroup Inc.

Unlike many government reports, retail sales aren’t adjusted for inflation, so swings can reflect price differences in addition to purchase totals.

Inflation eased in October to the slowest pace since January but remained at an elevated level. The consumer-price index rose a seasonally adjusted 7.7% in October from a year before, the Labor Department said last week, slowing from 9.1% in June, which was the highest in four decades.

Economists and executives are closely watching consumer spending in the early weeks of the important holiday selling season.

Retailers started holiday sales earlier this year, with some big retailers reporting sales growth in the third quarter.

Walmart Inc.

reported Tuesday that comparable U.S. sales rose 8.2% in its third quarter compared with a year earlier. The company said that shopper visits increased 2.1% in the quarter ended Oct. 28.

Home Depot Inc.

said that comparable sales rose 4.3% in its third quarter as big-ticket transactions and as consumers choose to renovate their homes instead of moving because of rising interest rates.

Alana Carr is the part-owner of four specialty retailers in Washington state. Ms. Carr said her toy store, gift shops and jewelry retailer have all done well this year, with overall sales up by double-digits compared with 2021.

Ms. Carr said she has been ready for the holiday shopping season since September. She ordered products early to avoid the shortages she experienced last year. She said she is worried that selling might be a bit softer because of the economic uncertainty and inflation eating into consumer budgets.

Greg Hughes, president of an Indianapolis-based distributor and manufacturer of board games, is concerned some of his retail customers are overstocked, in a contrast to shortages last year. Mr. Hughes said he would closely watch for a surge in last-minute orders right after Black Friday, as was typical in the years before the pandemic.

“Black Friday tells so much about where things are,” he said. “If we see a trickle, then the cautious side is the one that is prevailing.”

Write to Austen Hufford at austen.hufford@wsj.com

Retail sales—which include spending on cars, wine and ottomans as well as meals at restaurants—have generally risen in recent months amid higher prices and rising interest rates that can make purchases, particularly big ones, more expensive.

Retail sales were unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in September compared with August. They increased 0.4% in August from July. Spending declined in categories linked to big purchases such as televisions, sofas and golf clubs. Purchases at electronics and appliance stores declined 0.8% in September while spending at furniture stores fell 0.7%.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal estimate that retail sales rose 1.2% in October from September.

Higher gasoline prices and increased auto sales, reflecting easing supply chains, could boost October retail spending, said Veronica Clark, an economist at

Citigroup Inc.

Unlike many government reports, retail sales aren’t adjusted for inflation, so swings can reflect price differences in addition to purchase totals.

Inflation eased in October to the slowest pace since January but remained at an elevated level. The consumer-price index rose a seasonally adjusted 7.7% in October from a year before, the Labor Department said last week, slowing from 9.1% in June, which was the highest in four decades.

Economists and executives are closely watching consumer spending in the early weeks of the important holiday selling season.

Retailers started holiday sales earlier this year, with some big retailers reporting sales growth in the third quarter.

Walmart Inc.

reported Tuesday that comparable U.S. sales rose 8.2% in its third quarter compared with a year earlier. The company said that shopper visits increased 2.1% in the quarter ended Oct. 28.

Home Depot Inc.

said that comparable sales rose 4.3% in its third quarter as big-ticket transactions and as consumers choose to renovate their homes instead of moving because of rising interest rates.

Alana Carr is the part-owner of four specialty retailers in Washington state. Ms. Carr said her toy store, gift shops and jewelry retailer have all done well this year, with overall sales up by double-digits compared with 2021.

Ms. Carr said she has been ready for the holiday shopping season since September. She ordered products early to avoid the shortages she experienced last year. She said she is worried that selling might be a bit softer because of the economic uncertainty and inflation eating into consumer budgets.

Greg Hughes, president of an Indianapolis-based distributor and manufacturer of board games, is concerned some of his retail customers are overstocked, in a contrast to shortages last year. Mr. Hughes said he would closely watch for a surge in last-minute orders right after Black Friday, as was typical in the years before the pandemic.

“Black Friday tells so much about where things are,” he said. “If we see a trickle, then the cautious side is the one that is prevailing.”

Write to Austen Hufford at austen.hufford@wsj.com