forecasting

Estimate the range of a future observation with confidenceTarget Image — By Afif KusumaForecasting in the real world is an important task. Consider forecasting energy demand, temperature, food supply, and health indicators just to name a few. Getting an inaccurate forecast in these cases can have a significant impact on people’s lives.This is where prediction intervals can help. Prediction intervals are used to provide a range where the forecast is likely to be with a specific degree of confidence. For example, if you…

A graphical depiction of probabilities for severe U.S. weather by storm cluster type following significant Madden-Julian Oscillation fluctuations that have moved into the Pacific Ocean. Credit: Douglas E. Miller, Northern Illinois University Scientists at Northern Illinois University continue to hone extended-range weather forecasting, identifying patterns halfway around the globe that will heighten the probability weeks…

This illustration shows that during El Niño/positive IOD years, weak equatorial winds from the west lead to weak disturbances. During La Niña/negative IOD years, conversely, strong equatorial winds from the west lead to more cyclone formation by providing the initial spin-up. Credit: Florida Institute of Technology El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climate pattern involving warming or cooling sea surface temperatures…