With Threads, Meta Has Plenty of Opportunity and Underappreciated Risk

The updates came swiftly from Mark Zuckerberg. Threads, his Twitter copycat, hit 2 million users within two hours of its launch on Wednesday. Then 10 million within seven hours. Then 30 million the next morning. “Feels like the beginning of something special,” Zuckerberg posted. By Thursday afternoon, Elon Musk threatened to sue. By Friday, Threads hit 70 million users, according to Zuckerberg.

With a fast expanding userbase and support from its parent company, Threads appears destined to stick around for a bit. And while there’s opportunity for Meta, its emergence is not without risk. In its pursuit of cultural relevance and added revenue, Meta’s opened itself to distraction in its fight against TikTok. Threads may also dilute its core apps, weakening their network effects.

As Meta’s hot new Twitter clone wraps its first week, here are four opportunities and two risks to consider: 

Opportunity: Make some serious cash 

Twitter always struggled to grow revenue because its ad system was inferior to its competitors. Meta’s ad targeting and optimization tools are world-class, and they could make a difference when applied to a Twitter-esque product. Meta, for context, made nearly $40 per user last year while Snapchat, with similar features, made $12.98. Twitter’s best year was 2021, where it made a bit over $5 billion. With the assistance of Meta’s ad infrastructure, Threads could do much better.

Opportunity: Use the Reels algorithm to build a better Twitter

When Meta copied TikTok, it put a ton of resources into its Reels algorithm. To show you the best videos from across its network, not just posts from your friends, it needed a recommendation algorithm more powerful than the News Feed’s. Already, its effort is spilling over to Threads, where algorithms sort the feed, and there’s no Following tab. By going all-in on For You — at least at the outset — Meta is making a point. It believes its algorithm is better at finding posts you might like than you are yourself, and it has Instagram’s follow graph as helpful signal. Meta’s algorithmic feed may work well on a Twitter-like service, where new and casual users never saw the appeal in building follow graphs from scratch.

Risk: Distraction from the war with TikTok 

Meta moved away from public content in favor of friends-and-family posts in 2018. In doing so, it left a void that helped TikTok rise. Then, in 2020, Meta introduced Reels, making public content core to its apps again. Now, with Threads, Meta is creating another app for public content consumption, diluting the appeal of its core apps as it wages war with TikTok. Instagram head Adam Mosseri said Threads is for conversations while Instagram is for simply posting, but the distinction is so subtle it’s almost meaningless. By distracting users, influencers and its own executives from its core apps, Meta could harm its ability to win versus TikTok.

Opportunity: The ex-Twitter talent pool

Elon Musk laid off about 80% of Twitter’s workforce and, by one estimate, nearly 15% of its early exits already work at Meta. As Threads takes off, Mark Zuckerberg will have the opportunity to poach more ex-Twitter workers who are eager to take revenge. On Thursday, Musk threatened to sue Meta for poaching his employees. But that’ll be a difficult case to win, considering how gleefully Musk made his cuts. Now, ex-Twitter employees, including former comms executive Liz Kelly, are happily promoting Threads while pulling a Meta paycheck. They should be able to help Threads expand smartly as it moves ahead.

Risk: Another chaotic public forum

Zuckerberg, Mosseri and their colleagues have promised to build a “friendlier” Twitter, and the product already reflects some of those decisions. There’s no public count for retweets, for instance, which can disincentivize outrage baiting. There’s also an option to hide replies you don’t like. That said, social networks have not historically been friendly and the company is somewhat delusional if it thinks it can build a happy-go-lucky version of Twitter.

Opportunity: A potential wager for the cage match

How about this scenario: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk step into a steel cage sometime this fall. A UFC referee is there to make sure the fight is fair. The wager? If Zuck wins, he gets Twitter. If Elon wins, he gets Threads. Now that would be a fight worth tuning into. 

The updates came swiftly from Mark Zuckerberg. Threads, his Twitter copycat, hit 2 million users within two hours of its launch on Wednesday. Then 10 million within seven hours. Then 30 million the next morning. “Feels like the beginning of something special,” Zuckerberg posted. By Thursday afternoon, Elon Musk threatened to sue. By Friday, Threads hit 70 million users, according to Zuckerberg.

With a fast expanding userbase and support from its parent company, Threads appears destined to stick around for a bit. And while there’s opportunity for Meta, its emergence is not without risk. In its pursuit of cultural relevance and added revenue, Meta’s opened itself to distraction in its fight against TikTok. Threads may also dilute its core apps, weakening their network effects.

As Meta’s hot new Twitter clone wraps its first week, here are four opportunities and two risks to consider: 

Opportunity: Make some serious cash 

Twitter always struggled to grow revenue because its ad system was inferior to its competitors. Meta’s ad targeting and optimization tools are world-class, and they could make a difference when applied to a Twitter-esque product. Meta, for context, made nearly $40 per user last year while Snapchat, with similar features, made $12.98. Twitter’s best year was 2021, where it made a bit over $5 billion. With the assistance of Meta’s ad infrastructure, Threads could do much better.

Opportunity: Use the Reels algorithm to build a better Twitter

When Meta copied TikTok, it put a ton of resources into its Reels algorithm. To show you the best videos from across its network, not just posts from your friends, it needed a recommendation algorithm more powerful than the News Feed’s. Already, its effort is spilling over to Threads, where algorithms sort the feed, and there’s no Following tab. By going all-in on For You — at least at the outset — Meta is making a point. It believes its algorithm is better at finding posts you might like than you are yourself, and it has Instagram’s follow graph as helpful signal. Meta’s algorithmic feed may work well on a Twitter-like service, where new and casual users never saw the appeal in building follow graphs from scratch.

Risk: Distraction from the war with TikTok 

Meta moved away from public content in favor of friends-and-family posts in 2018. In doing so, it left a void that helped TikTok rise. Then, in 2020, Meta introduced Reels, making public content core to its apps again. Now, with Threads, Meta is creating another app for public content consumption, diluting the appeal of its core apps as it wages war with TikTok. Instagram head Adam Mosseri said Threads is for conversations while Instagram is for simply posting, but the distinction is so subtle it’s almost meaningless. By distracting users, influencers and its own executives from its core apps, Meta could harm its ability to win versus TikTok.

Opportunity: The ex-Twitter talent pool

Elon Musk laid off about 80% of Twitter’s workforce and, by one estimate, nearly 15% of its early exits already work at Meta. As Threads takes off, Mark Zuckerberg will have the opportunity to poach more ex-Twitter workers who are eager to take revenge. On Thursday, Musk threatened to sue Meta for poaching his employees. But that’ll be a difficult case to win, considering how gleefully Musk made his cuts. Now, ex-Twitter employees, including former comms executive Liz Kelly, are happily promoting Threads while pulling a Meta paycheck. They should be able to help Threads expand smartly as it moves ahead.

Risk: Another chaotic public forum

Zuckerberg, Mosseri and their colleagues have promised to build a “friendlier” Twitter, and the product already reflects some of those decisions. There’s no public count for retweets, for instance, which can disincentivize outrage baiting. There’s also an option to hide replies you don’t like. That said, social networks have not historically been friendly and the company is somewhat delusional if it thinks it can build a happy-go-lucky version of Twitter.

Opportunity: A potential wager for the cage match

How about this scenario: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk step into a steel cage sometime this fall. A UFC referee is there to make sure the fight is fair. The wager? If Zuck wins, he gets Twitter. If Elon wins, he gets Threads. Now that would be a fight worth tuning into.