Clock ticks down on Jason Kenney’s political fate as ballots in leadership vote counted

‘I’ve never lost an election, and I don’t plan on doing so now,’ Kenney said this week

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EDMONTON — Alberta Premier Jason Kenney will find out tonight whether he keeps his job.

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Sometime after 4 p.m. MT, the United Conservative Party will announce whether the embattled premier has retained the support of his party. The vote represents the culmination of months of bitterness and discontent within the party’s ranks, though whether Kenney wins or loses the leadership, the party’s future — with a provincial election in one year — remains somewhat uncertain.

If Kenney loses the leadership vote, he has said he’ll resign. This would leave the party hunting for an interim leader, and then entering a leadership race, likely three to six months from now, with an election several months later.

If he wins, Kenney has said he expects the disgruntled elements of the party apparatus to fall in line behind him. “What Albertans expect from their government isn’t a constant soap opera, and they certainly don’t want to see a family feud,” said Kenney in a recent Facebook livestream.

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Kenney is expected to speak in Calgary after the results are released.

The premier has said the leadership review was driven by those who are angry over COVID-19 measures and that he’s fighting against them to prevent the party — largely united because of his doing — from slipping into the control of “lunatics.”

He’s also said he expects to win.

Still, it’s unclear if the infighting that has dogged Kenney’s leadership will cease if he receives a modest endorsement. And it’s not clear if a huge margin of victory will even settle the discontent in the party ranks.

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Indeed, former conservative premiers Alison Redford and Ed Stelmach both struggled to keep their jobs even after a whopping 77 per cent endorsement from party faithful.

The United Conservative Party was forged from a merger of the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties; the new party, formed in July 2017, has always been a slightly unhappy marriage of right-of-centre conservatives and firebrand populists.

In his time as party leader, Kenney has attempted to keep a grip on these elements. He hasn’t always been successful, and while discontent with his leadership began early — largely because of perceived insufficient deference to grassroots concerns — it was the COVID-19 pandemic, and the government’s public-health decision-making, that threw his leadership into jeopardy.

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Back in April 2021, 16 UCP MLAs publicly broke ranks with the government, speaking out against the decision to impose public-health measures during the third wave of the pandemic. In the months following, there were rumblings that caucus would oust Kenney. While that never materialized, by December 2021, the party had agreed to review his leadership.

The review was scheduled for a one-day vote in Red Deer in April, but an expected few-thousand voters ballooned into more than 15,000, and the party switched to mail-in voting, sending ballots out to the nearly 60,000 members of the party. Those ballots were due back by May 11, and Wednesday, they were being counted, watched over by party scrutineers.

In polling released Monday, Common Ground, a research project at the University of Alberta, found that Kenney is about as popular in Alberta as Justin Trudeau. Sixty-three per cent hold a negative view, compared to 24 per cent who view Kenney positively. The survey also found that about 60 per cent of Albertans think members of the UCP should oust Kenney, and among those who identify themselves as UCP voters, it’s an almost even split between wanting Kenney gone and wanting him to stay.

“To the extent that UCP members may disagree with the party’s base and the general public, this divergence will likely impact the party’s popularity and even legitimacy in the months leading up to the next provincial election,” the survey notes.

• Email: [email protected] | Twitter: tylerrdawson

‘I’ve never lost an election, and I don’t plan on doing so now,’ Kenney said this week

Article content

EDMONTON — Alberta Premier Jason Kenney will find out tonight whether he keeps his job.

Article content

Sometime after 4 p.m. MT, the United Conservative Party will announce whether the embattled premier has retained the support of his party. The vote represents the culmination of months of bitterness and discontent within the party’s ranks, though whether Kenney wins or loses the leadership, the party’s future — with a provincial election in one year — remains somewhat uncertain.

If Kenney loses the leadership vote, he has said he’ll resign. This would leave the party hunting for an interim leader, and then entering a leadership race, likely three to six months from now, with an election several months later.

If he wins, Kenney has said he expects the disgruntled elements of the party apparatus to fall in line behind him. “What Albertans expect from their government isn’t a constant soap opera, and they certainly don’t want to see a family feud,” said Kenney in a recent Facebook livestream.

Article content

Kenney is expected to speak in Calgary after the results are released.

The premier has said the leadership review was driven by those who are angry over COVID-19 measures and that he’s fighting against them to prevent the party — largely united because of his doing — from slipping into the control of “lunatics.”

He’s also said he expects to win.

Still, it’s unclear if the infighting that has dogged Kenney’s leadership will cease if he receives a modest endorsement. And it’s not clear if a huge margin of victory will even settle the discontent in the party ranks.

Article content

Indeed, former conservative premiers Alison Redford and Ed Stelmach both struggled to keep their jobs even after a whopping 77 per cent endorsement from party faithful.

The United Conservative Party was forged from a merger of the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties; the new party, formed in July 2017, has always been a slightly unhappy marriage of right-of-centre conservatives and firebrand populists.

In his time as party leader, Kenney has attempted to keep a grip on these elements. He hasn’t always been successful, and while discontent with his leadership began early — largely because of perceived insufficient deference to grassroots concerns — it was the COVID-19 pandemic, and the government’s public-health decision-making, that threw his leadership into jeopardy.

Article content

Back in April 2021, 16 UCP MLAs publicly broke ranks with the government, speaking out against the decision to impose public-health measures during the third wave of the pandemic. In the months following, there were rumblings that caucus would oust Kenney. While that never materialized, by December 2021, the party had agreed to review his leadership.

The review was scheduled for a one-day vote in Red Deer in April, but an expected few-thousand voters ballooned into more than 15,000, and the party switched to mail-in voting, sending ballots out to the nearly 60,000 members of the party. Those ballots were due back by May 11, and Wednesday, they were being counted, watched over by party scrutineers.

In polling released Monday, Common Ground, a research project at the University of Alberta, found that Kenney is about as popular in Alberta as Justin Trudeau. Sixty-three per cent hold a negative view, compared to 24 per cent who view Kenney positively. The survey also found that about 60 per cent of Albertans think members of the UCP should oust Kenney, and among those who identify themselves as UCP voters, it’s an almost even split between wanting Kenney gone and wanting him to stay.

“To the extent that UCP members may disagree with the party’s base and the general public, this divergence will likely impact the party’s popularity and even legitimacy in the months leading up to the next provincial election,” the survey notes.

• Email: [email protected] | Twitter: tylerrdawson