Colorado was sixth-worst in U.S. for job growth in 2023
Colorado, accustomed to having one of the strongest rates of job growth of any state most years, found itself in an unfamiliar position last year of having one of the weakest in the country.
Colorado’s 0.8% gain in nonfarm jobs, representing a gain of 24,100 positions between December 2022 and December 2023, ranked sixth lowest among states, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Mississippi had the only decline in the U.S. at 0.7%, representing a net loss of 7,800 jobs last year. Rhode Island saw a 0.4% gain, Vermont a 0.5% gain, Iowa a 0.6% increase, and Tennessee a 0.7% increase.
And then came Colorado’s 0.8% gain, which was tied for sixth from the bottom with Kansas and New York.
Although Nebraska and Oklahoma were on the weak side with 1% job growth, Colorado’s other neighbors enjoyed much stronger gains. Wyoming had a job growth rate of 2.8%, while New Mexico was 2.4% and Utah at 1.9%.
Nevada led the country with a 3.8% gain, followed by Idaho and South Dakota at 3%. Among more populated states, Texas was a leader at 2.7% while Florida recorded a 2.5% gain.
The counts are based on employer surveys, which have become more unreliable since the pandemic and will be adjusted once unemployment insurance premium reports are filed. Colorado was among a group of states where the change in employment was so small as to not be statistically significant.
Ryan Gedney, a principal labor economist with the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, has argued for months that benchmarking revisions coming out next month will show a big upward revision and that the economy is doing much better than the monthly reports would suggest.
The Colorado Business Economic Outlook, which came out in early December, estimates that the state added around 64,500 jobs last year, not the 24,100 reported in the December employment report.
Given how important job growth has been in attracting new residents to the state and maintaining Colorado’s economic momentum, a lot is riding on those revisions. Colorado has seen net migration fall since the pandemic, especially when it comes to people moving from other states. Confirmation of a bottom-tier job growth rate could signal weakness and influence relocations both by corporations looking to expand and workers looking to fill open positions.
One explanation for slowing migration is that owning a home in Colorado has become prohibitively expensive and young adults are showing a preference for moving to cities with better affordability. In metro Denver, buying a median-priced home ate up 43% of the income of households earning 125% of the area median income in December, according to John Burns Real Estate & Consulting.
Four years earlier, that ratio in metro Denver was a much more manageable 29%. A similar pattern was seen across metro areas in the Sun Belt region and Southwest. Las Vegas saw its ratio move from 29% to 48%, while Phoenix went from 25% to 41% and Salt Lake City went from 29% to 46%.
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Colorado, accustomed to having one of the strongest rates of job growth of any state most years, found itself in an unfamiliar position last year of having one of the weakest in the country.
Colorado’s 0.8% gain in nonfarm jobs, representing a gain of 24,100 positions between December 2022 and December 2023, ranked sixth lowest among states, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Mississippi had the only decline in the U.S. at 0.7%, representing a net loss of 7,800 jobs last year. Rhode Island saw a 0.4% gain, Vermont a 0.5% gain, Iowa a 0.6% increase, and Tennessee a 0.7% increase.
And then came Colorado’s 0.8% gain, which was tied for sixth from the bottom with Kansas and New York.
Although Nebraska and Oklahoma were on the weak side with 1% job growth, Colorado’s other neighbors enjoyed much stronger gains. Wyoming had a job growth rate of 2.8%, while New Mexico was 2.4% and Utah at 1.9%.
Nevada led the country with a 3.8% gain, followed by Idaho and South Dakota at 3%. Among more populated states, Texas was a leader at 2.7% while Florida recorded a 2.5% gain.
The counts are based on employer surveys, which have become more unreliable since the pandemic and will be adjusted once unemployment insurance premium reports are filed. Colorado was among a group of states where the change in employment was so small as to not be statistically significant.
Ryan Gedney, a principal labor economist with the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, has argued for months that benchmarking revisions coming out next month will show a big upward revision and that the economy is doing much better than the monthly reports would suggest.
The Colorado Business Economic Outlook, which came out in early December, estimates that the state added around 64,500 jobs last year, not the 24,100 reported in the December employment report.
Given how important job growth has been in attracting new residents to the state and maintaining Colorado’s economic momentum, a lot is riding on those revisions. Colorado has seen net migration fall since the pandemic, especially when it comes to people moving from other states. Confirmation of a bottom-tier job growth rate could signal weakness and influence relocations both by corporations looking to expand and workers looking to fill open positions.
One explanation for slowing migration is that owning a home in Colorado has become prohibitively expensive and young adults are showing a preference for moving to cities with better affordability. In metro Denver, buying a median-priced home ate up 43% of the income of households earning 125% of the area median income in December, according to John Burns Real Estate & Consulting.
Four years earlier, that ratio in metro Denver was a much more manageable 29%. A similar pattern was seen across metro areas in the Sun Belt region and Southwest. Las Vegas saw its ratio move from 29% to 48%, while Phoenix went from 25% to 41% and Salt Lake City went from 29% to 46%.
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