Not so fast on the iPhone 14 order and production cuts, says reliable Apple whisperer
The iPhone 14 series seems on track to launch in September. Despite the delay worries that followed pandemic lockdowns in China this spring, it appears that Apple will hold its annual iPhone event in September. Apple hasn’t confirmed anything at this point, but supply chain rumors do not foreshadow any release date delays. Therefore, buyers might be able to place their iPhone 14 orders on a regular schedule at some point in mid-September.
However, the current economic landscape might be responsible for other effects on the iPhone 14 supply chain. A report said a few days ago that Apple might have cut its initial iPhone 14 orders by 10%.
Ming-Chi Kuo, an Apple insider with proven connections to the iPhone supply chain, disputes those findings. He suggests that Apple will stick to its initial iPhone 14 order estimates.
iPhone 14 orders cut by 10%?
Digitimes reported a few days ago that three major TSMC customers recently decreased their orders. That’s Apple, AMD, and Nvidia.
The report said that Apple cut its original or of 90 million units by 10%. If these figures are accurate, then Apple would initially be planning to sell 9 million fewer iPhone 14 units.
But Digitimes did not mention a crucial detail in its report: the type of processors that Apple would have cut. The iPhone 14 series will reportedly be the first to feature two different chip generations. The A15 Bionic will reportedly power the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus/Max. Then, the brand new A16 Bionic will power the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max.
TSMC is already manufacturing A15 Bionic System-on-Chips (SoC) for the iPhone 13 series. And Apple will continue to sell iPhone 13 versions alongside the iPhone 14.
Digitimes’s report aside, the iPhone continues to be in strong demand. The iPhone sold well during the first years of the pandemic, and the current landscape hasn’t affected sales. If anything, Apple increased iPhone 13 orders in the past few months, despite the lockdowns.
Kuo said before the Digitimes report came out that the iPhone 14 should see strong orders in China this year. Demand might surpass the iPhone 13 in the country. At the time, Kuo said the strong demand should offset any order cuts in the future.
Kuo’s new iPhone shipment expectations remain unchanged
Reacting to the Digitimes report, Kuo said that the rumored 10% cut is not aligned with his own information about iPhone 14 orders. He expects Apple to manufacture 100 million iPhone 14 units during the second half of the year.
The analyst said that slight (single-digit increase/decrease) adjustments for iPhone shipment forecast are common. Furthermore, Kuo said that “Apple doesn’t usually markedly change shipment forecasts for new iPhones (double-digit increase/decrease) before launching new models and confirming the actual market demand/feedback.”
(2/4)
2. Apple’s slight adjustments for iPhone shipment forecasts (single-digit increase/decrease) are common, including new models before mass production.— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) July 2, 2022
Moreover, if a supply chain issue causes a significant change in the shipment plan for iPhones before mass production, Kuo says Apple would postpone orders instead of cutting them.
Apple should provide guidance about the September quarter during its June earnings report later this month. Apple won’t specifically confirm iPhone 14 orders or comment on supply chain reports, of course. The company has often explained that iPhone supply chain reports usually don’t paint a complete picture.
(4/4)
4. If a supply chain issue causes a significant change in the shipment plan of the new iPhones before mass production, Apple usually postpones the orders instead of cutting them.
5. The above also applies to Apple’s other products.— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) July 2, 2022
While we can’t verify iPhone 14 order claims, we’ll soon see how strong iPhone 14 demand is. Assuming Apple launches the iPhone 14 series in September, we’ll be able to see how fast the handsets sell out. It’ll also be interesting to see how long buyers who are late with their preorders will have to wait for their shipments.
Additionally, we’ll have plenty of reports from analysts measuring the iPhone 14 demand and comparing it with the previous models.
More iPhone coverage: For more iPhone news, visit our iPhone 14 guide.
The iPhone 14 series seems on track to launch in September. Despite the delay worries that followed pandemic lockdowns in China this spring, it appears that Apple will hold its annual iPhone event in September. Apple hasn’t confirmed anything at this point, but supply chain rumors do not foreshadow any release date delays. Therefore, buyers might be able to place their iPhone 14 orders on a regular schedule at some point in mid-September.
However, the current economic landscape might be responsible for other effects on the iPhone 14 supply chain. A report said a few days ago that Apple might have cut its initial iPhone 14 orders by 10%.
Ming-Chi Kuo, an Apple insider with proven connections to the iPhone supply chain, disputes those findings. He suggests that Apple will stick to its initial iPhone 14 order estimates.
iPhone 14 orders cut by 10%?
Digitimes reported a few days ago that three major TSMC customers recently decreased their orders. That’s Apple, AMD, and Nvidia.
The report said that Apple cut its original or of 90 million units by 10%. If these figures are accurate, then Apple would initially be planning to sell 9 million fewer iPhone 14 units.
But Digitimes did not mention a crucial detail in its report: the type of processors that Apple would have cut. The iPhone 14 series will reportedly be the first to feature two different chip generations. The A15 Bionic will reportedly power the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus/Max. Then, the brand new A16 Bionic will power the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max.
TSMC is already manufacturing A15 Bionic System-on-Chips (SoC) for the iPhone 13 series. And Apple will continue to sell iPhone 13 versions alongside the iPhone 14.
Digitimes’s report aside, the iPhone continues to be in strong demand. The iPhone sold well during the first years of the pandemic, and the current landscape hasn’t affected sales. If anything, Apple increased iPhone 13 orders in the past few months, despite the lockdowns.
Kuo said before the Digitimes report came out that the iPhone 14 should see strong orders in China this year. Demand might surpass the iPhone 13 in the country. At the time, Kuo said the strong demand should offset any order cuts in the future.
Kuo’s new iPhone shipment expectations remain unchanged
Reacting to the Digitimes report, Kuo said that the rumored 10% cut is not aligned with his own information about iPhone 14 orders. He expects Apple to manufacture 100 million iPhone 14 units during the second half of the year.
The analyst said that slight (single-digit increase/decrease) adjustments for iPhone shipment forecast are common. Furthermore, Kuo said that “Apple doesn’t usually markedly change shipment forecasts for new iPhones (double-digit increase/decrease) before launching new models and confirming the actual market demand/feedback.”
(2/4)
2. Apple’s slight adjustments for iPhone shipment forecasts (single-digit increase/decrease) are common, including new models before mass production.— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) July 2, 2022
Moreover, if a supply chain issue causes a significant change in the shipment plan for iPhones before mass production, Kuo says Apple would postpone orders instead of cutting them.
Apple should provide guidance about the September quarter during its June earnings report later this month. Apple won’t specifically confirm iPhone 14 orders or comment on supply chain reports, of course. The company has often explained that iPhone supply chain reports usually don’t paint a complete picture.
(4/4)
4. If a supply chain issue causes a significant change in the shipment plan of the new iPhones before mass production, Apple usually postpones the orders instead of cutting them.
5. The above also applies to Apple’s other products.— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) July 2, 2022
While we can’t verify iPhone 14 order claims, we’ll soon see how strong iPhone 14 demand is. Assuming Apple launches the iPhone 14 series in September, we’ll be able to see how fast the handsets sell out. It’ll also be interesting to see how long buyers who are late with their preorders will have to wait for their shipments.
Additionally, we’ll have plenty of reports from analysts measuring the iPhone 14 demand and comparing it with the previous models.
More iPhone coverage: For more iPhone news, visit our iPhone 14 guide.
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