Our 2024 Oscars BuzzMeter – What will. and should, get buzz
They’re back again, those Buzz people, and here to flag what will — and argue passionately for what should be — in the Oscar conversation. It’s the first round of the BuzzMeter, which we think of as an awards season viewing guide.
Each round, our panel of six veteran film journalists ranks picks in each of 10 Oscar categories, using a points system (most points for top choice) that yields a fair picture of what their roiling, wrestling group mind believes are the best bets. In Round 2, they’ll predict the actual Oscar nominees. In Round 3, they’ll predict the winners.
Think you can do better? Fill out your own slate in our online polls each week for each featured category. This week, we officially kick off awards season (now that the strikes are thankfully over!) with The Big One: Best picture.
Your 2024 Oscars BuzzMeter panel: Justin Chang, The Los Angeles Times; Tim Cogshell, LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek; Dave Karger, TCM; Claudia Puig, LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek; Anne Thompson, IndieWire; Glenn Whipp, The Los Angeles Times.
(For The Times: Ricardo DeAratanha; Ricardo DeAratanha; Kent Nishimura; Jason Armond; Jason Armond; Jay L. Clendenin)
What’s the opposite of a bomb? Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” (starring Cillian Murphy, foreground) is in spitting distance of $1 billion, making it the highest-grossing biopic ever (just over “Bohemian Rhapsody”) and Nolan’s highest-grossing non-”Batman” movie. Our BuzzMeter panelists think it’s a front-runner in several Oscar categories, including best picture.
(Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures)
The Buzz Gang’s first pass at the best-picture race mixes personal picks and perceived slam dunks by acclamation, this summer’s “Barbenheimer” phenomenon among them.
Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” is well out in front, 6.5 points ahead of the two films tied for second place in Round 1, Yorgos Lanthimos’ ferociously feminist Frankenstein fable “Poor Things.” and the UK’s German-language international feature entry, Jonathan Glazer’s study of the banality of evil, “The Zone of Interest.” Martin Scorsese’s Osage murders chronicle, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (which plays a bit like “Get Out” from the point of view of the white folks), is in fourth.
Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” places fifth in initial polling, and as expected, shows up in many of the 10 BuzzMeter categories, leading in two of them.
Panelist Glenn Whipp notes that “Barbenheimer” “dominated the cultural conversation for weeks after their summer release. There’s still plenty more to talk about, though, and the motion picture academy, with an eye toward ratings, will welcome that discourse.”
A second foreign-language film, “Anatomy of a Fall” (somewhat controversially not selected as France’s Oscar entry), places in the Top 10 of Round 1.
Dave Karger says, “I’m also rooting for two of my favorite films of the year which seem to be on the bubble at this early stage: ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘All of Us Strangers.’ The race would be much more interesting with them in the running.”
This being the “buzzy” round, in which the panelists champion contenders they think deserve notice even if they doubt they’ll receive it, France’s actual Oscar entry, “The Taste of Things” also makes the list. Insert your own joke about that title here, but it features a warm performance by Juliette Binoche that may land the actress her third nomination, having won for “The English Patient.”
Despite this flood of prestige dramas, Claudia Puig says, “This could be the tide-turning year where comedies are finally shown respect by Oscar voters. ‘Barbie’ and the bizarrely funny ‘Poor Things’ are sure to make the cut, as well as the poignant buddy comedy ‘The Holdovers’ and the witty social satire ‘American Fiction.’ ”
Tim Cogshell, meanwhile, stumps for George C. Wolfe’s “Rustin,” widely considered a lead-actor contender for Emmy winner and Tony nominee Colman Domingo. But he also champions a title that may surprise many awards watchers: “The best picture most Black folks saw this year is ‘They Cloned Tyrone.’ One imagines the NAACP Awards and AAFCA will correct this likely academy oversight. And no, I’m not kidding — the best film of the year.
“And I loved ‘Barbie,’ too.”
Among those not receiving votes in Round 1 (some of which had not screened at press time): “The Boy and the Heron,” “Dream Scenario,” “Dumb Money,” “Flora and Son,” “Freud’s Last Session,” “May December,” “Napoleon,” “Next Goal Wins,” “Nyad,” “Saltburn.”
1. “Oppenheimer”
2. (tie) “Killers of the Flower Moon”
2. (tie) “Poor Things”
4. “The Zone of Interest”
5. “Barbie”
6. “Past Lives”
7. “All of Us Strangers”
8. “The Holdovers”
9. “Anatomy of a Fall”
10. “Maestro”
11. “They Cloned Tyrone”
12. “The Color Purple”
13. “Rustin”
14. “The Burial”
15. “The Taste of Things”
16. “American Fiction”
17. (tie) “Fallen Leaves”
17. (tie) “Showing Up”
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Zone of Interest”
2. “All of Us Strangers”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Poor Things”
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
6. “Anatomy of a Fall”
7. “Past Lives”
8. “Barbie”
9. “Maestro”
10. “Showing Up”
“A proper list of best picture nominees — which is by no means assured, though we can dream — would reflect that this has been as strong a year for international cinema (‘The Zone of Interest,’ ‘Anatomy of a Fall’), independent cinema (‘Past Lives,’ ‘Showing Up’) and mainstream Hollywood (‘Oppenheimer,’ ‘Barbie,’ ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’) alike.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Rustin”
2. “They Cloned Tyrone”
3. “The Holdovers”
4. “The Color Purple”
5. “The Burial”
6. “Past Lives”
7. “Barbie”
8. “Oppenheimer”
9. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
10. “Maestro”
“Currently, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ Martin Scorsese’s epic adaptation of David Grann’s book about the plight of the Osage people, whose wealth was plundered by dastardly men, seems to be favored for best picture. As epic historical dramas go, the better choice would be ‘Oppenheimer.’ Most folks might call this year’s real best picture ‘Barbie,’ a film about an imaginary woman and real-world doll whose agency was plundered by dastardly men. If I had my druthers, the upcoming Bayard Rustin biopic, ‘Rustin’ would be a top academy pick. If you don’t know who Bayard Rustin was, this remarkable film will correct that. And, of course, the best picture most Black folks saw this year is ‘They Cloned Tyrone.’ One imagines the NAACP Awards and AAFCA will correct this likely academy oversight. And no, I’m not kidding – the best film of the year. And I loved ‘Barbie,’ too.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Oppenheimer”
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
3. “The Zone of Interest”
4. “Maestro”
5. “Poor Things”
6. “Barbie”
7. “The Color Purple”
8. “Past Lives”
9. “Anatomy of a Fall”
10. “All of Us Strangers”
“The marquee category already has its fair share of locks: ‘Oppenheimer,’ ‘Barbie,’ ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and likely nominees ‘Maestro,’ ‘Poor Things,’ ‘The Zone of Interest.’ I’m also rooting for two of my favorite films of the year, which seem to be on the bubble at this early stage: ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘All of Us Strangers.’ The race would be much more interesting with them in the running.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
2. “The Zone of Interest”
3. “All of Us Strangers”
4. “Anatomy of a Fall”
5. “Barbie”
6. (tie) “Oppenheimer”
6. (tie) “The Holdovers”
8. “Poor Things”
9. “Past Lives”
10. (tie) “Maestro”
10. (tie) “American Fiction”
“Leading the list are the powerful epics ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Oppenheimer,’ followed by the less-hyped, but no-less-masterful dramas ‘All of Us Strangers,’ ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ ‘Past Lives’ and ‘Zone of Interest.’ ‘Barbie,’ the summer’s runaway hit, will surely have a place among the top nominees, not only because it was clever and amusing, but because of its record-breaking box-office success. This could be the tide-turning year where comedies are finally shown respect by Oscar voters. The aforementioned ‘Barbie’ and the bizarrely funny ‘Poor Things’ are sure to make the cut, as well as the poignant buddy comedy ‘The Holdovers’ and the witty social satire ‘American Fiction.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Oppenheimer”
2. “Poor Things”
3. “Barbie”
4. “The Holdovers”
5. “Past Lives”
6. “They Cloned Tyrone”
7. “Maestro”
8. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
9. “American Fiction”
10. “All of Us Strangers”
“Things can change, but three movies are poised to dominate the race: blockbusters ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Barbie’ and festival darling ‘Poor Things.’ Three literary adaptations, Toronto audience-award-winner ‘American Fiction’ (from the Percival Everett novel ‘Erasure’), queer ghost story ‘All of Us Strangers’ (from ‘Summer of the Strange People’ by Taichi Yamada), and holocaust drama ‘The Zone of Interest’ (based on the Martin Amis book) are also in the mix.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “Poor Things”
2. “Past Lives”
3. “The Zone of Interest”
4. “All of Us Strangers”
5. “Oppenheimer”
6. “Barbie”
7. “The Taste of Things”
8. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
9. “Anatomy of a Fall”
10. “Fallen Leaves”
“In what has been a very good year for movies, the 2024 Oscars will likely be remembered as a sequel to ‘Barbenheimer.’ Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ and Greta Gerwig’s ‘Barbie’ were critically acclaimed box-office behemoths, movies that dominated the cultural conversation for weeks after their summer release. There’s still plenty more to talk about, though, and the motion picture academy, with an eye toward ratings, will welcome that discourse.”
The BuzzMeter thinks “Oppenheimer” mad genius Christopher Nolan (left; looking as if he fits right in the scene with frequent collaborator Cillian Murphy, right) is in line to receive a number of Oscar noms, including his second for direction.
(Melinda Sue Gordon / Universal Pictures)
Two veterans look like slam dunks: Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese. Given the popularity of her film and her previous nom (for “Lady Bird”), Greta Gerwig also looks like a solid pick in a tie at No. 4 with Yorgos Lanthimos, also a previous nominee (for “The Favourite”).
Perhaps surprisingly, comfortably in third place is Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Interest”; a nomination would make him the sixth director in six years to be honored for a film substantially in a language other than English.
Glenn Whipp says, “Jonathan Glazer has made four daring, distinctive films in 23 years – ‘Sexy Beast,’ ‘Birth,’ ‘Under the Skin’ and, now, ‘The Zone of Interest.” Dave Karger says, “I’m also bullish on ‘The Zone of Interest’s’ visionary Jonathan Glazer, who despite making roughly one film per decade, remains a favorite amongst his fellow directors. He’s had two BAFTA nods but never an Oscar nomination. That very well could change this year.”
Justin Chang thinks Glazer is likely, but says if not him, the academy easily could continue to honor international filmmakers: “This year’s Cannes lineup provides many options: Justine Triet (‘Anatomy of a Fall’), Wim Wenders (‘Perfect Days’), Tran Anh Hùng (‘The Taste of Things’).”
If Gerwig got her roses, says Puig, “The academy would also be acknowledging a woman—which it has only done three times before in its 95 years. (‘Showing Up’s’ Kelly Reichardt and ‘Past Lives’ ’ Celine Song are also highly deserving this year).”
Anne Thompson sees strong candidates on the outside, looking in: “Who gets left out? Bradley Cooper for his second feature in which he stars, ‘Maestro’? Alexander Payne, who may have to settle for cheering on his ‘The Holdovers’ screenwriter?”
Among the notables not receiving votes in Round 1: Blitz Bazawule (“The Color Purple”); Ava DuVernay (“Origin”); Emerald Fennell (“Saltburn”); David Fincher (“The Killer”); Craig Gillespie (“Dumb Money”); Todd Haynes (“May December”); Taika Waititi (“Next Goal Wins”).
1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
4. (tie) Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
4. (tie) Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
6. Celine Song (“Past Lives”)
7. (tie) Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
7. (tie) Andrew Haigh (“All of Us Strangers”)
9. (tie) Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”)
9. (tie) Kelly Reichardt (“Showing Up”)
9. (tie) Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
2. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Andrew Haigh (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Kelly Reichardt (“Showing Up”)
“A battle looms between Christopher Nolan, gunning for an overdue first win, and Martin Scorsese, very much in the hunt for a second. As for that mysterious slot that the directors branch likes to throw an international filmmaker, this year’s Cannes lineup provides many options: Justine Triet (‘Anatomy of a Fall’), Wim Wenders (‘Perfect Days’), Tran Anh Hùng (‘The Taste of Things’) and, to my mind, the likeliest beneficiary, Jonathan Glazer (‘The Zone of Interest’).”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
4. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
5. Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”)
“The usual suspects will garner their ordinary nominations: Martin Scorsese for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ Christopher Nolan ‘Oppenheimer,’ maybe Alexander Payne for the small but powerful ‘The Holdovers,’ and perhaps Bradley Cooper for ‘Maestro.’ Cooper is a new(ish)comer to the ranks of often-nominated filmmakers, though he’s been nominated nine times in various categories since his 2013 best actor nom for ‘Silver Linings Playbook.’ One would love to see Kelly Reichardt (‘Showing Up’), Sofia Coppola (‘Priscilla’) and George C. Wolfe (‘Rustin’), given the exceptional work each of these filmmakers has presented for several years now – too.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
4. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
“Martin Scorsese and the Barbenheimer duo of Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan seem like sure-thing repeat nominees. I’m also bullish on ‘The Zone of Interest’s’ visionary Jonathan Glazer, who despite making roughly one film per decade, remains a favorite amongst his fellow directors. He’s had two BAFTA nods but never an Oscar nomination. That very well could change this year.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Celine Song (“Past Lives”)
3. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
4. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
5. Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
“The directing Oscar is Martin Scorsese’s to lose, but it could just as easily go to Greta Gerwig, since ‘Barbie’ was such a huge summer hit, and the academy loves to acknowledge box-office winners. And in this case, they would be paying tribute to the movie that jump-started moviegoing after a serious slump of several years. The academy would also be acknowledging a woman—which it has only done three times before in its 95 years. (‘Showing Up’s’ Kelly Reichardt and ‘Past Lives’ ’ Celine Song are also highly deserving this year). My money’s on the academy rewarding the movie that rescued a severely sagging box office.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
3. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
4. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
5. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
“Best director comes down to only five: who gets left out? Bradley Cooper for his second feature in which he stars, ‘Maestro’? Alexander Payne, who may have to settle for cheering on his ‘The Holdovers’ screenwriter? Right now, the battle of the auteurs pits Christopher Nolan vs. Greta Gerwig vs. Yorgos Lanthimos.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
2. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
3. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
4. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Celine Song (“Past Lives”)
“Jonathan Glazer has made four daring, distinctive films in 23 years – ‘Sexy Beast,’ ‘Birth,’ ‘Under the Skin’ and, now, ‘The Zone of Interest,’ a chilling look at Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss and his family living in the shadow of the concentration camp. It’s a damning assessment of humans’ ability to deny truths that are inconvenient to their ability to lead lives of oblivious comfort.”
Emma Stone’s all-in performance that powers the wild, ferocious “Poor Things” is on top of Round 1 of the BuzzMeter. (Also pictured: Ramy Youssef)
(Yorgos Lanthimos/Searchlight Pictures)
Oscar winner Emma Stone’s utterly committed work powers Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” (he also directed her to a nom in “The Favourite”); she tops the Round-1 voting.
Glenn Whipp says, “It’s immediately apparent from the moment Emma Stone lurches on screen as the Frankenstein-like creation in ‘Poor Things’ that we’re witnessing a fearless performance of the first order … give her that second Oscar already.”
Her lead is tenuous, however: Only two points over Lily Gladstone for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” despite some disagreement in the panel about whether Gladstone should be considered lead or supporting (The studio is submitting her as lead).
Justin Chang says, “Lily Gladstone: lead or supporting? Apple says lead, a decision that reads as a strategic ‘though just short of cynical’ attempt to brand the hotly debated ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ as an Osage-centric narrative. I lean supporting, mainly due to screen time and narrative emphasis, though I’m sympathetic to counterarguments citing the outsized emotional impact of Gladstone’s performance. She’s astonishing either way.”
Meanwhile, Anne Thompson considers it “a two-way race between Emma Stone … and Carey Mulligan.” Dave Karger says “Annette Bening and Emma Stone seem like locks.”
“Sandra Hüller’s two roles — her excellent turn in ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and her disturbing role as a Nazi wife in ‘Zone of Interest’ — should definitely put her in the running,” says Claudia Puig. “Greta Lee’s sublimely sensitive portrayal in ‘Past Lives’ merits a nomination, as does the excellent Michelle Williams for her understated performance in ‘Showing Up.’ Less likely, but just as worthy, is Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s layered and bittersweet performance in ‘You Hurt My Feelings.’ ”
Among the notables not receiving first-round votes: Leonie Benesch (“The Teachers’ Lounge”); Jessica Chastain (“Memory”); Jodie Comer (“The Bikeriders”); Eve Hewson (“Flora and Son”); Helen Mirren (“Golda”); Julianne Moore (“May December”); Cailee Spaeny (“Priscilla”); Michelle Williams (“Showing Up”).
1. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
2. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
4. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
5. Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)
6. Margot Robbie (“Barbie”)
7. Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Origin”)
9. Michelle Williams (“Showing Up”)
10. Anjanue Ellis-Taylor (“The Nickel Boys”)
11. Teyana Taylor (“A Thousand and One”)
12. Halle Bailey (“The Little Mermaid”)
13. Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”)
14. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“You Hurt My Feelings”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
2. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
3. Teyana Taylor (“A Thousand and One”)
4. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
5. Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)
“Lily Gladstone: lead or supporting? Apple says lead, a decision that reads as a strategic (though just short of cynical) attempt to brand the hotly debated ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ as an Osage-centric narrative. I lean supporting, mainly due to screen time and narrative emphasis, though I’m sympathetic to counterarguments citing the outsized emotional impact of Gladstone’s performance. She’s astonishing either way.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Origin”)
3. Anjanue Ellis-Taylor (“The Nickel Boys”)
4. Halle Bailey (“The Little Mermaid”)
5. Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”)
“Lily Gladstone for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is just about a given in this category because she’s excellent in a thankless role, yet one without which the realities of the tragedy and heartbreak of this tale cannot be portrayed. This is not unlike the part Lupita Nyong’o toiled for in ‘12 Years a Slave’ — thankless and Oscar-worthy.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
2. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
3. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
4. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
“Like last year, there are enough powerhouse lead female turns this year to fill two rosters of five. Annette Bening and Emma Stone seem like locks, while Lily Gladstone, Carey Mulligan, and ‘Barbie’ lead Margot Robbie can’t be counted out. In a weaker year, ‘Anatomy of a Fall’s’ Sandra Hüller and ‘Past Lives’ ‘ Greta Lee would have no trouble making the list.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Michelle Williams (“Showing Up”)
3. Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)
4. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
5. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“You Hurt My Feelings”)
“This could be Lily Gladstone’s year for her beautifully restrained performance in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon.’ However, Sandra Hüller’s two roles—her excellent turn in ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and her disturbing role as a Nazi wife in ‘Zone of Interest’ — should definitely put her in the running. Greta Lee’s sublimely sensitive portrayal in ‘Past Lives’ merits a nomination, as does the excellent Michelle Williams for her understated performance in ‘Showing Up.’ Less likely, but just as worthy, is Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s layered and bittersweet performance in ‘You Hurt My Feelings.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
2. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
3. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
4. Margot Robbie (“Barbie”)
5. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
“Lead actress is a two-way race between Emma Stone (‘Poor Things’) vying for her second Oscar as a woman with a transplanted brain, and two-time nominee Carey Mulligan (‘Maestro’) trying for her first as the glamorous wife of composer-conductor Leonard Bernstein.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
2. Margot Robbie (“Barbie”)
3. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)
5. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
“It’s immediately apparent from the moment Emma Stone lurches on screen as the Frankenstein-like creation in ‘Poor Things’ that we’re witnessing a fearless performance of the first order. And then it just keeps getting better, as Stone takes her character on a journey of liberation, moving from childlike curiosity to voracious desire, finally landing on enlightened independence that’s thrilling to witness. Give her that second Oscar already.”
Andrew Scott (left; pictured with Paul Mescal, right) tops the BuzzMeter in Round 1 for his deeply felt work in the queer romance with ghostly elements, “All of Us Strangers.”
(Jonathan Hession/Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Scott is way out in front in Round 1 (by eight points over Cillian Murphy) for his searching performance in the haunting romance, “All of Us Strangers.”
Glenn Whipp says Scott “boasts a long resume of distinguished credits in British theater, the BBC series ‘Sherlock’ and, of course, the rather handsome priest on ‘Fleabag.’ With ‘All of Us Strangers,’ he finally has a film role worthy of his talent … It’s a soul-stirring turn filled with vulnerability, openness and a beauty that shatters.”
“Basically, there’s Andrew Scott in ‘All of Us Strangers’ and there’s everyone else,” says Justin Chang, before listing an “everyone else” roster of highly praised international performances.
Claudia Puig writes, “Best actor, by all rights, should go to Andrew Scott for his masterfully nuanced and soulful performance in ‘All of Us Strangers,’ closely followed by Colman Domingo’s dazzling turn in ‘Rustin’ and Jeffrey Wright’s witty portrayal in ‘American Fiction.’ ”
As to the horse race, Anne Thompson says, “For now, it’s Cillian Murphy’s to lose for the title role in ‘Oppenheimer,’ while Andrew Scott (Hot Priest in ‘Fleabag’) could move up in the rankings as more people see his bravura performance.”
Dave Karger says, “Nine-time nominee Bradley Cooper delivers a career-best performance in ‘Maestro’ and could be a 12- or 13-time nominee within a few months. Could this finally be his year?”
Among the notable performances not on the first-round list: Paul Dano (“Dumb Money”); Zac Efron (“The Iron Claw”); Anthony Hopkins (“Freud’s Last Session”); Barry Keoghan (“Saltburn”); Joaquin Phoenix (“Napoleon”).
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
5. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
6. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
7. Jamie Foxx (“The Burial”)
8. Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”)
9. Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”)
“Basically, there’s Andrew Scott in ‘All of Us Strangers’ and there’s everyone else. But that everyone else does include some terrific lead actors whom I wish had more of a chance, including Christian Friedel (‘The Zone of Interest’), Elliot Crosset Hove (‘Godland’), Thomas Schubert (‘Afire’), Michael Thomas (‘Rimini’) and the great Koji Yakusho (‘Perfect Days’), who won a well-deserved prize at Cannes.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Jamie Foxx (“The Burial”)
4. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
5. Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”)
“Matt Damon’s natural and deeply felt performance in ‘Air’ is not showy, but good. The same is true of Paul Giamatti in his first reteaming with Alexander Payne since ‘Sideways,’ for ‘The Holdovers.’ Still, the academy likes showy – so probably not. Jamie Fox is showy in ‘The Burial’ and very good, so maybe. One would also love to see the always-perfect Jeffrey Wright for ‘American Fiction’ and Teo Yoo for ‘Past Lives.’ Assured noms for Leo in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and Andrew Scott for ‘All of Us Strangers.’ ”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
5. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
“Nine-time nominee Bradley Cooper delivers a career-best performance in ‘Maestro’ and could be a 12- or 13-time nominee within a few months. Could this finally be his year? He’ll have to fend off film-anchoring performances from the likes of Cillian Murphy and Colman Domingo. Worthy underdogs abound here, including ‘Saltburn’s’ Barry Keoghan, ‘Dream Scenario’s’ Nicolas Cage, and Andrew Scott, pitch-perfect in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ ”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
4. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
5. Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”)
“Best actor, by all rights, should go to Andrew Scott for his masterfully nuanced and soulful performance in ‘All of Us Strangers,’ closely followed by Colman Domingo’s dazzling turn in ‘Rustin’ and Jeffrey Wright’s witty portrayal in ‘American Fiction.’ But don’t count out the always-superb Paul Giamatti as a sardonic prep school teacher in ‘The Holdovers’ and Nicolas Cage as a hapless family man in ‘Dream Scenario.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
3. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
“Lead actor could move around over the next few months. For now, it’s Cillian Murphy’s to lose for the title role in ‘Oppenheimer,’ while Andrew Scott (Hot Priest in ‘Fleabag’) could move up in the rankings as more people see his bravura performance in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ Bradley Cooper is earning raves for his makeup-enhanced portrayal of composer-conductor Leonard Bernstein. Leonardo DiCaprio has won before, and voters may not consider his turn as a dimwitted stooge in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ his best work to date.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
4. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
5. Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”)
“Andrew Scott is 47 and boasts a long resume of distinguished credits in British theater, the BBC series ‘Sherlock’ and, of course, the rather handsome priest on ‘Fleabag.’ With ‘All of Us Strangers,’ he finally has a film role worthy of his talent, playing a solitary man dealing with the ghosts of his past and, perhaps, his present. It’s a soul-stirring turn filled with vulnerability, openness and a beauty that shatters.”
It’s a tie at the top of Round 1 of the BuzzMeter’s supporting actress picks: Jodie Foster of “NYAD” (left) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph of “The Holdovers” (right).
(Kimberley French/Netflix; Seacia Pavao)
In the first-round polling, Jodie Foster (“Nyad”) is tied at the top with Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Leftovers”): Randolph “has spent the past four years proving that she isn’t bound by genre,” says Glenn Whipp. “Her understated turn … showcases her dramatic talents in a way that makes her first Oscar nomination feel inevitable.”
Justin Chang writes, “I’m slotting Lily Gladstone in this race despite her lead-actress campaign for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ though it’s worth noting that hers isn’t the only performance that could conceivably fall into either race. Juliette Binoche is arguably a lead in ‘The Taste of Things.’ And in terms of screen time and emotional impact, I’d say Jodie Foster is on even footing with Annette Bening in ‘Nyad,’ a movie whose very message boils down to: Every supporting player is a star.”
Some superb performances may be too brief for even supporting attention, such as Patti LuPone’s pure poison in “Beau Is Afraid”; Tracee Ellis Ross’ bullseye-hitting turn in “American Fiction” and Carey Mulligan’s unfailingly missing-the-mark (and memorably so) role in “Saltburn.”
“The number of minutes the extraordinary Viola Davis is in ‘Air’ is few, but perfect,” says Tim Cogshell.
Dave Karger, meanwhile, guesses that “ ‘The Color Purple,’ still largely unseen, is the key that will unlock this category. Both Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson are possible nominees just based on their respective roles.”
Some of the notable performances not receiving first-round recognition: Vanessa Kirby (“Napoleon”); Patti LuPone (“Beau Is Afraid”); Parker Posey (“Beau Is Afraid”); Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”); Florence Pugh (“Oppenheimer”); Tracee Ellis Ross (“American Fiction”); Jurnee Smollett (“The Burial”); Leslie Uggams (“American Fiction”).
1. (tie) Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
1. (tie) Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
3. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
4. (tie) Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
4. (tie) Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. (tie) Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)
7. Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
7. (tie) Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
9. (tie) Viola Davis (“Air”)
9. (tie) Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
9. (tie) H.E.R. (“The Color Purple”)
9. (tie) Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)
13. (tie) Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
13. (tie) Julianne Moore (“May December”)
15. Erika Alexander (“American Fiction”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)
3. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
5. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
“I’m slotting Lily Gladstone in this race despite her lead actress campaign for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ though it’s worth noting that hers isn’t the only performance that could conceivably fall into either race. Juliette Binoche is arguably a lead in ‘The Taste of Things.’ And in terms of screen time and emotional impact, I’d say Jodie Foster is on even footing with Annette Bening in ‘Nyad,’ a movie whose very message boils down to: Every supporting player is a star.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
2. H.E.R. (“The Color Purple”)
3. Viola Davis (“Air”)
4. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
5. Erika Alexander (“American Fiction”)
“The number of minutes the extraordinary Viola Davis is in ‘Air’ is few, but perfect. Beyond the nominee-designate, a position once held by Meryl Streep, one has yet to see Taraji P. Henson (‘The Color Purple’), H.E.R. (‘The Color Purple’), Danielle Brooks (‘The Color Purple’) and Erika Alexander in ‘American Fiction,’ but we are rooting for them all.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
3. Julianne Moore (“May December”)
4. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
5. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
“ ‘The Color Purple,’ still largely unseen, is the key that will unlock this category. Both Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson are possible nominees just based on their respective roles. Two-time Emmy winner Claire Foy could earn her first AMPAS recognition thanks to her moving turn in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ And two past lead-actress winners—Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore—are great bets for their supporting work in ‘Nyad’ and ‘May December.’ ”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
3. Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)
4. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
5. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
“Da’Vine Joy Randolph has the edge here for her emotionally layered role as a grieving mom in ‘The Holdovers.’ If Apple had put Lily Gladstone in the supporting actress category, she would have been the one to beat. It still will be a tough contest, with Jodie Foster as a likely nominee for her lovely portrayal of a supportive coach in ‘Nyad’ and Claire Foy as a traditional mom in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
2. Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)
3. Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
4. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
5. Viola Davis (“Air”)
“Supporting actress could go to Da’Vine Joy Randolph (‘The Holdovers’) as the maternal prep school cook who looks after a miserable professor (Paul Giamatti) and his equally unhappy student (Dominic Sessa) left at school over the Christmas holidays. Her rival could be Sandra Hüller, who chillingly plays the wife of the commandant of Auschwitz in ‘The Zone of Interest.’”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
2. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
3. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
4. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
5. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
“Da’Vine Joy Randolph broke out opposite Eddie Murphy in the 2019 comedy ‘Dolemite Is My Name’ and has spent the past four years proving that she isn’t bound by genre. Her understated turn as a cafeteria worker grieving the loss of her son in Alexander Payne’s bittersweet ‘The Holdovers’ showcases her dramatic talents in a way that makes her first Oscar nomination feel inevitable.”
How can you tell them apart? Robert Downey, Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) and Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) are tied atop the BuzzMeter’s first-round picks in the supporting-actor race.
(Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures; Jaap Buitendijk / Warner Bros.)
It’s “Barbenheimer” made flesh as Robert Downey, Jr. and Ryan Gosling are tied for No. 1 in the first round for giving, let’s face it, exactly the same performance in identical films.
“By mid-summer, many had already pegged this as a ‘Barbenheimer’ race: a showdown between Robert Downey Jr. at his Marvel-liberated best and Ryan Gosling at his most self-mockingly hilarious,” says Justin Chang. “Neither would be an undeserving winner, though take them out of the running and you’d still have an incredibly rich field.”
“He’s not just Ken,” says Glenn Whipp of Gosling. “He’s a revelation.”
Dave Karger says, “Mark Ruffalo is effectively hammy in ‘Poor Things,’ while breakout Charles Melton more than holds his own opposite Oscar winners Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore in ‘May December.’ Special mention to Glenn Howerton who walks away with Blackberry thanks to his transformative performance.”
Tim Cogshell says, beyond the frontrunners, he’s “hopeful for Colman Domingo for ‘The Color Purple,’ Glynn Turman in ‘Rustin,’ Chris Rock in the same film, and Sterling K. Brown in ‘American Fiction’ because he should have been nominated for ‘Honk For Jesus, Save Your Soul’ last year.”
Some of note who did not receive votes this round: Willem Dafoe (“Poor Things”); Noah Galvin (“Theater Camp”); Matthew Goode (“Freud’s Last Session”); Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“Flora and Son”); Tommy Lee Jones (“The Burial”); Marshawn Lynch (“Bottoms”); Jonathan Majors (“Creed III”); Paul Mescal (“All of Us Strangers”); Chris Messina (“Air”); Peter Sarsgaard (“Memory”); Liev Schreiber (“Golda”); Jeffrey Wright (“Rustin”).
1. (tie) Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
1. (tie) Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
3. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
4. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”)
6. (tie) Charles Melton (“May December”)
6. (tie) Colman Domingo (“The Color Purple”)
8. (tie) Glynn Turman (“Rustin”)
8. (tie) John Magaro (“Past Lives”)
10. (tie) Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)
10. (tie) Chris Rock (Rustin)
10. (tie) Jamie Bell (“All of Us Strangers”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
3. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
4. John Magaro (“Past Lives”)
5. Jamie Bell (“All of Us Strangers”)
“By mid-summer, many had already pegged this as a ‘Barbenheimer’ race: a showdown between Robert Downey Jr. at his Marvel-liberated best and Ryan Gosling at his most self-mockingly hilarious. Neither would be an undeserving winner, though take them out of the running and you’d still have an incredibly rich field. It feels wrong to leave out Paul Mescal ‘All of Us Strangers’), Willem Dafoe (‘Poor Things’), Glenn Howerton (‘BlackBerry’), Charles Melton (‘May December’) and Chris Messina (‘Air’), among others.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Colman Domingo (“The Color Purple”)
4. Glynn Turman (“Rustin”)
5. Chris Rock (“Rustin”)
“One can imagine Ryan Gosling getting the nod for his Ken in ‘Barbie’ and even Ben Affleck for his spare but endearing turn in ‘Air.’ Still, the academy is more likely to lean into the traditional, which includes De Niro for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and Robert Downey Jr. for ‘Oppenheimer.’ We are hopeful for Colman Domingo for ‘The Color Purple,’ Glynn Turman in ‘Rustin,’ Chris Rock in the same film, and Sterling K. Brown in ‘American Fiction’ because he should have been nominated for ‘Honk For Jesus, Save Your Soul’ last year.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
4. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
5. Charles Melton (“May December”)
“Two respected Roberts (Downey and De Niro) lead the pack here, while ‘Barbie’ scene-stealer Ryan Gosling should easily score his third career nomination. Beyond that, it’s a bit tougher to predict. Mark Ruffalo is effectively hammy in ‘Poor Things,’ while breakout Charles Melton more than holds his own opposite Oscar winners Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore in ‘May December.’ Special mention to Glenn Howerton who walks away with Blackberry thanks to his transformative performance.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
3. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
4. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
5. Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”)
“It seems probable that it will be a contest between Robert De Niro (who’s won twice before and been nominated 8 times) and twice-nominated Ryan Gosling as the inimitably hilarious Ken in the summer phenomenon ‘Barbie.’ He’s never won and this could be his year. Then again, comic performances rarely win. More serious, and also worthy, are Jamie Bell as a straitlaced father from the ‘80s in ‘All of Us Strangers’ and Robert Downey Jr. for his nearly unrecognizable turn in ‘Oppenheimer.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
2. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
3. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
4. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)
“Supporting actor is a tight contest between ‘Oppenheimer’ villain Robert Downey, Jr. and ‘Barbie’ scene-stealer Ryan Gosling as Ken. Does anyone else have a chance? Watch out for Mark Ruffalo in ‘Poor Things,’ who surprises in a slapstick comedic role as an older rake who gives the rapidly maturing Bella (Emma Stone) the continental (and sexual) education she seeks — and then falls for her.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
2. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
3. Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”)
4. Charles Melton (“May December”)
5. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
“Ryan Gosling’s ‘Ken-ergy’ played an essential part in the success of Greta Gerwig’s subversive, self-aware, kind-of-sort-of-but-not-really Mattel commercial ‘Barbie.’ Gosling sings. Gosling dances. He also rollerblades, embraces the patriarchy, battles insecurities and grapples with the meaning of life itself. Gosling is game for it all, the earnestness, the silliness, the ‘literal’ muscularity. He’s not just Ken. He’s a revelation.”
It’s based on existing IP but is apparently still an original screenplay … at any rate, Greta Gerwig is the BuzzMeter’s top pick in Round 1. (L-r) Margot Robbie; Alexandra Shipp; Michael Cera; Gerwig (foreground); America Ferrera and Ariana Greenblatt on the set of “Barbie.”
(Warner Bros. Pictures)
What’s in an original screenplay? The writers’ branch of the academy will have the final say (as it has done in the past, when it switched the categories of scripts such as those for “Syriana” and “Moonlight”), but the Greta Gerwig-Noah Baumbach script for “Barbie” is being campaigned by Warners as original, rather than adapted. Clearly, there has been a host of animated “Barbie” movies and TV shows (as well as books and comics), but just as clearly, the Gerwig-Baumbach script is an entirely different animal compared to those — can anyone find the plot thread in “Barbie in A Mermaid Tale 2” in which, driven by questions about death, she travels to the real world?
Anyhoo, “Barbie” sits atop the BuzzMeter’s first-round selections in the category of original screenplay.
“Assuming voters abide by the studio’s campaign, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s witty ‘Barbie’ screenplay will be the one to beat here,” says Dave Karger. “For the fifth slot, I’m rooting for the riveting and complex courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ which remains, in my mind, the most thought-provoking film of the year.”
Claudia Puig says, apart from “Barbie,” “I predict a three-way contest between Celine Song’s ‘Past Lives,’ Nicole Holofcener’s ‘You Hurt My Feelings’ and Justine Triet for her French courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall.’ May the best woman win.”
Of the Finnish-German romantic comedy “Fallen Leaves,” Glenn Whipp writes, “There’s a depth of feeling that you don’t usually find in this sodden genre, along with some terrific deadpan humor. And the love story between two blue-collar workers is sublime. It’s a hopeful film set in a hardened world, the perfect antidote to our current, trying times.“
Among the contenders not on the first-round list: “Dream Scenario” (Kristoffer Borgli); “Fingernails” (Christos Nikou); “The Iron Claw” (Sean Durkin); “Origin” (Ava DuVernay”); “The Persian Version” (Maryam Keshavarz); “Showing Up” (Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt); “A Thousand and One” (A.V. Rockwell).
1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
3. (tie) “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
3. (tie) “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
5. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
6. “May December” — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
7. (tie) “Fallen Leaves” — Aki Kaurismäki
7. (tie) “Rustin” — Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black
7. (tie) “Showing Up” — Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt
10. (tie) “Asteroid City” — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
10. (tie) “You Hurt My Feelings” — Nicole Holofcener
10. (tie) “Saltburn” — Emerald Fennell
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
2. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
3. “May December” — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
4. “Showing Up” — Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt
5. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
“It’s been great seeing more non-English-language scripts pop up in this category over the years, including ‘Roma,’ ‘The Worst Person in the World’ and one well-deserved winner, ‘Parasite.’ In addition to ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ which admittedly has more than a smattering of English dialogue, it’d be lovely to see movies like Christian Petzold’s ‘Afire’ (German) and Cristian Mungiu’s ‘R.M.N.’ (Romanian, Hungarian, German, English and French) in the mix — lovely, but unlikely.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
3. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
4. “Rustin” — Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black
5. “Saltburn” — Emerald Fennell
“These should be the nominees for best original screenplay: ‘Barbie’ by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach; ‘The Holdovers’ by David Hemingson; ‘Past Lives’ by Celine Song; ‘Rustin’ by Julian Breece and Dustin Lance Black; and ‘Saltburn’ by Emerald Fennell. I’m hopeful for the reverse order regarding winners, but I haven’t seen them all – yet.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
3. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
4. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
5. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
“Assuming voters abide by the studio’s campaign, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s witty ‘Barbie’ screenplay will be the one to beat here, alongside more intimate scripts like ‘Maestro,’ ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘Past Lives.’ For the fifth slot, I’m rooting for the riveting and complex courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ which remains, in my mind, the most thought-provoking film of the year.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
2. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
3. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
4. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
5. “You Hurt My Feelings” — Nicole Holofcener
“I predict a three-way contest between Celine Song’s ‘Past Lives,’ Nicole Holofcener’s ‘You Hurt My Feelings’ and Justine Triet for her French courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall.’ May the best woman win. And never underestimate the formidable power of the ‘Barbie’ juggernaut and her much-admired screenwriters, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
3. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
4. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
5. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
“Even though it’s a comedy, ‘Barbie’ could run away with the win for the fearlessly imaginative Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, but playwright-turned-writer-director Celine Song’s indie breakout ‘Past Lives,’ and TV scribe David Hemingson’s poignant Christmas comedy ‘The Holdovers’ are also competitive.“
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
2. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
3. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
4. “Fallen Leaves” — Aki Kaurismäki
5. “Asteroid City” — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
“Playing at Telluride, ‘Fallen Leaves’ was introduced as a romantic comedy filtered through the distinct sensibility of Finnish filmmaker Aki Kaurismäki. The movie features a handshake, a kiss on the cheek and a kiss on the forehead. That’s it. But there’s also a depth of feeling that you don’t usually find in this sodden genre, along with some terrific deadpan humor. And the love story between two blue-collar workers is sublime. It’s a hopeful film set in a hardened world, the perfect antidote to our current, trying times.”
The BuzzMeter considers “Oppenheimer” auteur Christopher Nolan the frontrunner for three Oscars: best picture, director and adapted screenplay (from “American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer” by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherman).
(Joe Pugliese / For The Times)
Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” screenplay manages to be epic and intimate at the same time (and also manages to almost completely dodge the fallout — literal and figurative — of the protagonist’s crowning accomplishment) and is well out in front of the pack (by seven points) in Round 1.
Panelists cite its “astonishing biographical compression” (Justin Chang) and call it a “historic tour-de-force” (Anne Thompson). Some Buzzpeople alternately see it as a two-way race between “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon,” or “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things.”
Thompson says of the latter matchup, “Nolan’s blockbuster may have the advantage, as Lanthimos pushes the edge of the envelope with his feminist and overtly sexual coming-of-age tale.”
“If there’s any justice,” says Claudia Puig, “this Oscar will go to ‘All of Us Strangers’ for Andrew Haigh’s brilliant adaptation of the novel by Taichi Yamada.”
Tim Cogshell writes, “Hopeful possibilities for me include ‘The Color Purple,’ adapted by Marcus Gardley; Cord Jefferson for ‘American Fiction’; and Andrew Haigh for ‘All of Us Strangers,’ a beautifully and cleverly scripted adaptation.”
“American Fiction,” making the Top 5 this round, emerges as a panel favorite:
Dave Karger says, “Of course, there’s also a chance ‘Barbie’ could end up here if the writers’ branch ignores the suggested original category placement. And don’t ignore Cord Jefferson’s searing, satirical work on Toronto festival winner ‘American Fiction.’”
“Cord Jefferson’s ‘American Fiction’ has won audience awards from the Toronto, Mill Valley and Middleburg film festivals, so it must be doing something right,” writes Glenn Whipp. “It’s silly, sharp, heartfelt and, yes, the best kind of crowd-pleaser.”
1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
3. (tie) “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. (tie) “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
5. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
6. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
7. “The Color Purple” — Marcus Gardley
8. “The Taste of Things” — Tran Anh Hung
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
3. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
4. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
“It’s hard to choose a favorite in this category — do you go with the staggering biographical compression of ‘Oppenheimer’? The adroit reshufflings of narrative and perspective in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Poor Things’? I don’t know, but I hope voters take a moment to not only watch ‘The Zone of Interest,’ but also take a look at Martin Amis’ much plottier, prosier novel — and appreciate the ruthless skill with which Jonathan Glazer pared nearly all of it away.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
2. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
3. “The Color Purple” — Marcus Gardley
4. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
5. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
“The adapted screenplay nominees will include Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese for their very long ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and Christopher Nolan for the almost equally long ‘Oppenheimer.’ Hopeful possibilities for me include ‘The Color Purple,’ adapted by Marcus Gardley; Cord Jefferson for ‘American Fiction’; and Andrew Haigh for ‘All of Us Strangers,’ a beautifully and cleverly scripted adaptation.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
4. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
5. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
“Best picture frontrunners ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ are automatic nominees here, while more adventurous voters will support ‘Poor Things’ and ‘The Zone of Interest.’ Of course, there’s also a chance ‘Barbie’ could end up here if the writers’ branch ignores the suggested original category placement. And don’t ignore Cord Jefferson’s searing, satirical work on Toronto festival winner ‘American Fiction.’”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
4. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
5. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
“If there’s any justice, this Oscar will go to ‘All of Us Strangers’ for Andrew Haigh’s brilliant adaptation of the novel by Taichi Yamada. But the cleverly satirical ‘American Fiction’ will surely be a major contender, as will the much-acclaimed critical favorites ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Oppenheimer,’ both adapted from bestselling books.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
3. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
4. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
5. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
“It’s between Christopher Nolan’s historic tour-de-force ‘Oppenheimer’ and Yorgos Lanthimos’ lavishly imagined period fantasy ‘Poor Things.’ Nolan’s blockbuster may have the advantage, as Lanthimos pushes the edge of the envelope with his feminist and overtly sexual coming-of-age tale.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
2. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
3. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
4. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
5. “The Taste of Things” — Tran Anh Hung
“Cord Jefferson’s ‘American Fiction’ has won audience awards from the Toronto, Mill Valley and Middleburg film festivals, so it must be doing something right. Jefferson, who wrote and directed the film, packs a lot into its two hours. It’s a satire on the book world and Hollywood adaptations as well as wry drama about a Black college professor and author fuming about phonies and the commodification of Black narratives. It’s silly, sharp, heartfelt and, yes, the best kind of crowd-pleaser.”
This bucolic scene is typical of “The Zone of Interest,” a snapshot of the household of Rudolf Höss, commandant of the Auschwitz concentration camp. The study of the banality of evil captures the day-to-day, minor concerns of his family as they live more or less placidly beside the house of horrors Höss oversaw. The film is far out in front in the international feature race; it’s the only consensus pick in Round 1.
(Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival)
In recent years, there has often been an international-feature contender that came to be seen as inevitable — “Roma,” “Parasite,” “All Quiet on the Western Front” among them. Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” appears to have taken that mantle this year — or so says the panel — as the deadpan study of the banality of evil is the sole consensus pick in the first round of the BuzzMeter.
“ ‘The Zone of Interest,’ which is also a strong contender for best picture, will certainly become the United Kingdom’s third-ever nominee in this category and quite possibly its first winner,” says Dave Karger.
Anne Thompson says, “Nothing will catch up with it.”
But beyond that sense of inevitability, a number of other international entries have passionate support from the panel.
Tim Cogshell says, “ ‘’Bye Bye, Tiberias,’ from Palestine, will either be shunned or embraced by the academy; It should be embraced.” He also cites “The Teachers’ Lounge” (from Germany) and “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine) as contenders.
Seeing “lots of worthy possibilities,” Claudia Puig cites “Finland’s tale of working-class lovers, ‘Fallen Leaves’ and Mexico’s poignant family drama ‘Tótem,’ ‘Perfect Days,’ a poetic slice-of-life from Japan and either the French gastronomic feast for the eyes, ‘The Taste of Things’ or the timely German classroom drama The Teachers’ Lounge.’ ” as “Zone” alternatives.
Meanwhile, Justin Chang would have you “Spare a thought for Romania,” as he lists the many worthy titles the country has submitted in the last 20 years, all for nought. “I’d like to think things will go differently for Radu Jude’s extraordinary ‘Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World,’ but do not expect too much from the motion picture academy.”
And Glenn Whipp calls Round 1’s No. 2 film, “The Taste of Things,” “a sumptuous romance … [starring] the legendary Juliette Binoche.” In choosing to submit this film over its other heralded candidate, “Anatomy of a Fall” (which might also have suffered some political pushback), Whipp says “France chose France — or, at least, all the things you associate with France: Food, love, Binoche.”
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
4. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
5. “Tótem” (Mexico)
6. (tie) “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine)
6. (tie) “Bye Bye Tiberias” (Palestine)
6. (tie) “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Tótem” (Mexico)
4. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
5. “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania)
“Spare a thought for Romania: Has any other country submitted films of such consistently high quality over the past two decades and been greeted with such indifference from voters? A rare nomination for 2020’s ‘Collective’ aside, it’s ridiculous that among ‘The Death of Mr. Lazarescu,’ ‘4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days,’ ‘Police, Adjective,’ ‘Beyond the Hills,’ ‘Aferim!,’ ‘Sieranevada,’ ‘I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History as Barbarians’ and ‘Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn,’ not one succeeded in cracking the final five. I’d like to think things will go differently for Radu Jude’s extraordinary ‘Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World,’ but do not expect too much from the motion picture academy.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
3. “The Taste of Things” (France)
4. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
5. “Bye Bye Tiberias” (Palestine)
“ ‘’Bye Bye, Tiberias,’ from Palestine, will either be shunned or embraced by the academy; It should be embraced. There is chatter about ‘The Zone of Interest’ from the UK, ‘The Teachers’ Lounge’ from Germany, and ‘20 Days in Mariupol’ from Ukraine, among other nations with impressive submissions.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
4. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
5. “Tótem” (Mexico)
“ ‘The Zone of Interest,’ which is also a strong contender for best picture, will certainly become the United Kingdom’s third-ever nominee in this category and quite possibly its first winner. The rest of the roster is a crap shoot: France’s ‘The Taste of Things’ was a favorite amongst international critics at Cannes earlier this year, while beloved filmmaker Aki Kaurismaki (‘Fallen Leaves’) was last represented in this category 20 years ago.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
4. “Tótem” (Mexico)
5. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
“It’s a particularly good category this year, with lots of worthy possibilities: The likeliest nominees are Finland’s tale of working-class lovers, ‘Fallen Leaves’ and Mexico’s poignant family drama ‘Tótem,’ the harrowing German-language drama ‘The Zone of Interest,’ ‘Perfect Days,’ a poetic slice-of-life from Japan and either the French gastronomic feast for the eyes, ‘The Taste of Things’ or the timely German classroom drama The Teachers’ Lounge.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
3. “The Taste of Things” (France)
4. “Tótem” (Mexico)
5. “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine)
“The international-feature race has an early frontrunner: Jonathan Glazer’s German-language Holocaust drama ‘The Zone of Interest,’ the UK entry. Nothing will catch up with it.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
4. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
5. “Tótem” (Mexico)
“France had to choose between two great films for its international feature submission – ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘The Taste of Things.’ It went with the latter, a sumptuous romance about the relationship between a renowned chef and his cook, his muse, his life (and if he had his way, his wife), played by the legendary Juliette Binoche. In short, France chose France – or, at least, all the things you associate with France: Food, love, Binoche.”
Take a bow, wood boy. Or is that would-be boy? “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” is the BuzzMeter’s consensus pick to win the Oscar for animated feature.
(GKIDS)
The big news is, of course, the return of the dean of Japanese animation, Hayao Miyazaki, with a film erupting with beautiful imagination, “The Boy and the Heron.” But there are other major contenders, including the sequel “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which many viewers and critics felt surpassed its Oscar-winning predecessor; a complete rejuvenation of the “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” franchise; and the beautifully rendered and often hilarious “Nimona,” which manages to take great liberties with its source material while remaining true to its heart.
“ ‘The Boy and the Heron’ certainly feels like a farewell; a meditation on resilience in the face of loss as well as a summation of the 82-year-old legend’s career,” says Glenn Whipp.
Claudia Puig sees a two-way race: “Think spiders and herons facing off. It will be ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ vs (spiderversus) Hayao Miyazaki’s latest masterpiece, ‘The Boy and the Heron.’ Either one is likely to trounce the rest of the competition.”
On the other hand: “ ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem’ is the best Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles anything in decades,” says Tim Cogshell. “ ‘Elemental’ did not do well at the box office, but I’ve noticed actual children love it. Perhaps the academy will notice this also.”
Dave Karger says, “Netflix’s boundary-pushing ‘Nimona,’ featuring several LGBTQ+ characters and irreverent humor, would be a welcome addition to the category.”
“Any year that brings us the latest final film from Hayao Miyazaki is a good one,” says Justin Chang, admitting he hasn’t seen “nearly enough feature-length animation this year. I’m pretty sure I didn’t see ‘PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie,’ although after a while, the near-hourly PR emails made me think that I had.”
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “They Shot the Piano Player”
5. “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
6. “Suzume”
7. “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
8. (tie) “Nimona”
8. (tie) “Wish”
10. “Robot Dreams”
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Suzume”
3. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
4. “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
5. “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
“Any year that brings us the latest final film from Hayao Miyazaki is a good one, and it’s heartening that a number of studio titles (including ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ and ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem’) have their strengths as well. As usual, though, I haven’t seen nearly enough feature-length animation this year. I’m pretty sure I didn’t see ‘PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie,’ although after a while, the near-hourly PR emails made me think that I had.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
2. “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
3. “The Boy and the Heron”
4. “They Shot the Piano Player”
5. “Elemental”
“ ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ is popular, entertaining, and sound, while ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem’ is the best Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles anything in decades. Other notable contenders include ‘The Boy and the Heron,’ ‘They Shot the Piano Player’ and ‘Elemental.’ ‘Elemental’ did not do well at the box office, but I’ve noticed actual children love it. Perhaps the academy will notice this also.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “They Shot the Piano Player”
5. “Nimona”
“Acclaimed filmmaker Hayao Miyazaki’s final film, ‘The Boy and the Heron,’ leads the way here alongside the latest Spider-Verse entry. Disney will certainly be represented by either ‘Elemental’ or ‘Wish,’ while Netflix’s boundary-pushing ‘Nimona,’ featuring several LGBTQ+ characters and irreverent humor, would be a welcome addition to the category.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “They Shot the Piano Player”
4. “Elemental”
5. “Nimona”
“Think spiders and herons facing off. It will be ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ vs (spiderversus) Hayao Miyazaki’s latest masterpiece, ‘The Boy and the Heron.’ Either one is likely to trounce the rest of the competition. Also likely to be nominated is Pixar’s ‘Elemental.’ Probably in the mix will be the latest installment of ‘Chicken Run.’ Rounding out the category will be nostalgic favorites ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles’ up against ‘Super Mario Bros.’.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
2. “The Boy and the Heron”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Wish”
5. “Robot Dreams”
“ ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,’ the blockbuster sequel that outperformed the Oscar-winning original, could win again. Or, Oscar voters could choose to reward the return of the great Hayao Miyazaki (the Oscar-winning ‘Spirited Away’) for directing the critical fave ‘The Boy and the Heron.’ ”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
5. “They Shot the Piano Player”
“Hayao Miyazaki announced his retirement a decade ago following the release of his eleventh film, ‘The Wind Rises.’ It wasn’t the first time Miyazaki had expressed a desire to step away from feature animation and, given that history, it’s not surprising that it didn’t stick. His latest, ‘The Boy and the Heron,’ certainly feels like a farewell, though, a meditation on resilience in the face of loss as well as a summation of the 82-year-old legend’s career.”
They’re back again, those Buzz people, and here to flag what will — and argue passionately for what should be — in the Oscar conversation. It’s the first round of the BuzzMeter, which we think of as an awards season viewing guide.
Each round, our panel of six veteran film journalists ranks picks in each of 10 Oscar categories, using a points system (most points for top choice) that yields a fair picture of what their roiling, wrestling group mind believes are the best bets. In Round 2, they’ll predict the actual Oscar nominees. In Round 3, they’ll predict the winners.
Think you can do better? Fill out your own slate in our online polls each week for each featured category. This week, we officially kick off awards season (now that the strikes are thankfully over!) with The Big One: Best picture.
Your 2024 Oscars BuzzMeter panel: Justin Chang, The Los Angeles Times; Tim Cogshell, LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek; Dave Karger, TCM; Claudia Puig, LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek; Anne Thompson, IndieWire; Glenn Whipp, The Los Angeles Times.
(For The Times: Ricardo DeAratanha; Ricardo DeAratanha; Kent Nishimura; Jason Armond; Jason Armond; Jay L. Clendenin)
What’s the opposite of a bomb? Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” (starring Cillian Murphy, foreground) is in spitting distance of $1 billion, making it the highest-grossing biopic ever (just over “Bohemian Rhapsody”) and Nolan’s highest-grossing non-”Batman” movie. Our BuzzMeter panelists think it’s a front-runner in several Oscar categories, including best picture.
(Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures)
The Buzz Gang’s first pass at the best-picture race mixes personal picks and perceived slam dunks by acclamation, this summer’s “Barbenheimer” phenomenon among them.
Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” is well out in front, 6.5 points ahead of the two films tied for second place in Round 1, Yorgos Lanthimos’ ferociously feminist Frankenstein fable “Poor Things.” and the UK’s German-language international feature entry, Jonathan Glazer’s study of the banality of evil, “The Zone of Interest.” Martin Scorsese’s Osage murders chronicle, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (which plays a bit like “Get Out” from the point of view of the white folks), is in fourth.
Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” places fifth in initial polling, and as expected, shows up in many of the 10 BuzzMeter categories, leading in two of them.
Panelist Glenn Whipp notes that “Barbenheimer” “dominated the cultural conversation for weeks after their summer release. There’s still plenty more to talk about, though, and the motion picture academy, with an eye toward ratings, will welcome that discourse.”
A second foreign-language film, “Anatomy of a Fall” (somewhat controversially not selected as France’s Oscar entry), places in the Top 10 of Round 1.
Dave Karger says, “I’m also rooting for two of my favorite films of the year which seem to be on the bubble at this early stage: ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘All of Us Strangers.’ The race would be much more interesting with them in the running.”
This being the “buzzy” round, in which the panelists champion contenders they think deserve notice even if they doubt they’ll receive it, France’s actual Oscar entry, “The Taste of Things” also makes the list. Insert your own joke about that title here, but it features a warm performance by Juliette Binoche that may land the actress her third nomination, having won for “The English Patient.”
Despite this flood of prestige dramas, Claudia Puig says, “This could be the tide-turning year where comedies are finally shown respect by Oscar voters. ‘Barbie’ and the bizarrely funny ‘Poor Things’ are sure to make the cut, as well as the poignant buddy comedy ‘The Holdovers’ and the witty social satire ‘American Fiction.’ ”
Tim Cogshell, meanwhile, stumps for George C. Wolfe’s “Rustin,” widely considered a lead-actor contender for Emmy winner and Tony nominee Colman Domingo. But he also champions a title that may surprise many awards watchers: “The best picture most Black folks saw this year is ‘They Cloned Tyrone.’ One imagines the NAACP Awards and AAFCA will correct this likely academy oversight. And no, I’m not kidding — the best film of the year.
“And I loved ‘Barbie,’ too.”
Among those not receiving votes in Round 1 (some of which had not screened at press time): “The Boy and the Heron,” “Dream Scenario,” “Dumb Money,” “Flora and Son,” “Freud’s Last Session,” “May December,” “Napoleon,” “Next Goal Wins,” “Nyad,” “Saltburn.”
1. “Oppenheimer”
2. (tie) “Killers of the Flower Moon”
2. (tie) “Poor Things”
4. “The Zone of Interest”
5. “Barbie”
6. “Past Lives”
7. “All of Us Strangers”
8. “The Holdovers”
9. “Anatomy of a Fall”
10. “Maestro”
11. “They Cloned Tyrone”
12. “The Color Purple”
13. “Rustin”
14. “The Burial”
15. “The Taste of Things”
16. “American Fiction”
17. (tie) “Fallen Leaves”
17. (tie) “Showing Up”
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Zone of Interest”
2. “All of Us Strangers”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Poor Things”
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
6. “Anatomy of a Fall”
7. “Past Lives”
8. “Barbie”
9. “Maestro”
10. “Showing Up”
“A proper list of best picture nominees — which is by no means assured, though we can dream — would reflect that this has been as strong a year for international cinema (‘The Zone of Interest,’ ‘Anatomy of a Fall’), independent cinema (‘Past Lives,’ ‘Showing Up’) and mainstream Hollywood (‘Oppenheimer,’ ‘Barbie,’ ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’) alike.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Rustin”
2. “They Cloned Tyrone”
3. “The Holdovers”
4. “The Color Purple”
5. “The Burial”
6. “Past Lives”
7. “Barbie”
8. “Oppenheimer”
9. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
10. “Maestro”
“Currently, ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ Martin Scorsese’s epic adaptation of David Grann’s book about the plight of the Osage people, whose wealth was plundered by dastardly men, seems to be favored for best picture. As epic historical dramas go, the better choice would be ‘Oppenheimer.’ Most folks might call this year’s real best picture ‘Barbie,’ a film about an imaginary woman and real-world doll whose agency was plundered by dastardly men. If I had my druthers, the upcoming Bayard Rustin biopic, ‘Rustin’ would be a top academy pick. If you don’t know who Bayard Rustin was, this remarkable film will correct that. And, of course, the best picture most Black folks saw this year is ‘They Cloned Tyrone.’ One imagines the NAACP Awards and AAFCA will correct this likely academy oversight. And no, I’m not kidding – the best film of the year. And I loved ‘Barbie,’ too.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Oppenheimer”
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
3. “The Zone of Interest”
4. “Maestro”
5. “Poor Things”
6. “Barbie”
7. “The Color Purple”
8. “Past Lives”
9. “Anatomy of a Fall”
10. “All of Us Strangers”
“The marquee category already has its fair share of locks: ‘Oppenheimer,’ ‘Barbie,’ ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and likely nominees ‘Maestro,’ ‘Poor Things,’ ‘The Zone of Interest.’ I’m also rooting for two of my favorite films of the year, which seem to be on the bubble at this early stage: ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘All of Us Strangers.’ The race would be much more interesting with them in the running.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
2. “The Zone of Interest”
3. “All of Us Strangers”
4. “Anatomy of a Fall”
5. “Barbie”
6. (tie) “Oppenheimer”
6. (tie) “The Holdovers”
8. “Poor Things”
9. “Past Lives”
10. (tie) “Maestro”
10. (tie) “American Fiction”
“Leading the list are the powerful epics ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Oppenheimer,’ followed by the less-hyped, but no-less-masterful dramas ‘All of Us Strangers,’ ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ ‘Past Lives’ and ‘Zone of Interest.’ ‘Barbie,’ the summer’s runaway hit, will surely have a place among the top nominees, not only because it was clever and amusing, but because of its record-breaking box-office success. This could be the tide-turning year where comedies are finally shown respect by Oscar voters. The aforementioned ‘Barbie’ and the bizarrely funny ‘Poor Things’ are sure to make the cut, as well as the poignant buddy comedy ‘The Holdovers’ and the witty social satire ‘American Fiction.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Oppenheimer”
2. “Poor Things”
3. “Barbie”
4. “The Holdovers”
5. “Past Lives”
6. “They Cloned Tyrone”
7. “Maestro”
8. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
9. “American Fiction”
10. “All of Us Strangers”
“Things can change, but three movies are poised to dominate the race: blockbusters ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Barbie’ and festival darling ‘Poor Things.’ Three literary adaptations, Toronto audience-award-winner ‘American Fiction’ (from the Percival Everett novel ‘Erasure’), queer ghost story ‘All of Us Strangers’ (from ‘Summer of the Strange People’ by Taichi Yamada), and holocaust drama ‘The Zone of Interest’ (based on the Martin Amis book) are also in the mix.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “Poor Things”
2. “Past Lives”
3. “The Zone of Interest”
4. “All of Us Strangers”
5. “Oppenheimer”
6. “Barbie”
7. “The Taste of Things”
8. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
9. “Anatomy of a Fall”
10. “Fallen Leaves”
“In what has been a very good year for movies, the 2024 Oscars will likely be remembered as a sequel to ‘Barbenheimer.’ Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ and Greta Gerwig’s ‘Barbie’ were critically acclaimed box-office behemoths, movies that dominated the cultural conversation for weeks after their summer release. There’s still plenty more to talk about, though, and the motion picture academy, with an eye toward ratings, will welcome that discourse.”
The BuzzMeter thinks “Oppenheimer” mad genius Christopher Nolan (left; looking as if he fits right in the scene with frequent collaborator Cillian Murphy, right) is in line to receive a number of Oscar noms, including his second for direction.
(Melinda Sue Gordon / Universal Pictures)
Two veterans look like slam dunks: Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese. Given the popularity of her film and her previous nom (for “Lady Bird”), Greta Gerwig also looks like a solid pick in a tie at No. 4 with Yorgos Lanthimos, also a previous nominee (for “The Favourite”).
Perhaps surprisingly, comfortably in third place is Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Interest”; a nomination would make him the sixth director in six years to be honored for a film substantially in a language other than English.
Glenn Whipp says, “Jonathan Glazer has made four daring, distinctive films in 23 years – ‘Sexy Beast,’ ‘Birth,’ ‘Under the Skin’ and, now, ‘The Zone of Interest.” Dave Karger says, “I’m also bullish on ‘The Zone of Interest’s’ visionary Jonathan Glazer, who despite making roughly one film per decade, remains a favorite amongst his fellow directors. He’s had two BAFTA nods but never an Oscar nomination. That very well could change this year.”
Justin Chang thinks Glazer is likely, but says if not him, the academy easily could continue to honor international filmmakers: “This year’s Cannes lineup provides many options: Justine Triet (‘Anatomy of a Fall’), Wim Wenders (‘Perfect Days’), Tran Anh Hùng (‘The Taste of Things’).”
If Gerwig got her roses, says Puig, “The academy would also be acknowledging a woman—which it has only done three times before in its 95 years. (‘Showing Up’s’ Kelly Reichardt and ‘Past Lives’ ’ Celine Song are also highly deserving this year).”
Anne Thompson sees strong candidates on the outside, looking in: “Who gets left out? Bradley Cooper for his second feature in which he stars, ‘Maestro’? Alexander Payne, who may have to settle for cheering on his ‘The Holdovers’ screenwriter?”
Among the notables not receiving votes in Round 1: Blitz Bazawule (“The Color Purple”); Ava DuVernay (“Origin”); Emerald Fennell (“Saltburn”); David Fincher (“The Killer”); Craig Gillespie (“Dumb Money”); Todd Haynes (“May December”); Taika Waititi (“Next Goal Wins”).
1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
4. (tie) Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
4. (tie) Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
6. Celine Song (“Past Lives”)
7. (tie) Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
7. (tie) Andrew Haigh (“All of Us Strangers”)
9. (tie) Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”)
9. (tie) Kelly Reichardt (“Showing Up”)
9. (tie) Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
2. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Andrew Haigh (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Kelly Reichardt (“Showing Up”)
“A battle looms between Christopher Nolan, gunning for an overdue first win, and Martin Scorsese, very much in the hunt for a second. As for that mysterious slot that the directors branch likes to throw an international filmmaker, this year’s Cannes lineup provides many options: Justine Triet (‘Anatomy of a Fall’), Wim Wenders (‘Perfect Days’), Tran Anh Hùng (‘The Taste of Things’) and, to my mind, the likeliest beneficiary, Jonathan Glazer (‘The Zone of Interest’).”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
4. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
5. Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”)
“The usual suspects will garner their ordinary nominations: Martin Scorsese for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ Christopher Nolan ‘Oppenheimer,’ maybe Alexander Payne for the small but powerful ‘The Holdovers,’ and perhaps Bradley Cooper for ‘Maestro.’ Cooper is a new(ish)comer to the ranks of often-nominated filmmakers, though he’s been nominated nine times in various categories since his 2013 best actor nom for ‘Silver Linings Playbook.’ One would love to see Kelly Reichardt (‘Showing Up’), Sofia Coppola (‘Priscilla’) and George C. Wolfe (‘Rustin’), given the exceptional work each of these filmmakers has presented for several years now – too.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
4. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
“Martin Scorsese and the Barbenheimer duo of Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan seem like sure-thing repeat nominees. I’m also bullish on ‘The Zone of Interest’s’ visionary Jonathan Glazer, who despite making roughly one film per decade, remains a favorite amongst his fellow directors. He’s had two BAFTA nods but never an Oscar nomination. That very well could change this year.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Celine Song (“Past Lives”)
3. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
4. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
5. Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
“The directing Oscar is Martin Scorsese’s to lose, but it could just as easily go to Greta Gerwig, since ‘Barbie’ was such a huge summer hit, and the academy loves to acknowledge box-office winners. And in this case, they would be paying tribute to the movie that jump-started moviegoing after a serious slump of several years. The academy would also be acknowledging a woman—which it has only done three times before in its 95 years. (‘Showing Up’s’ Kelly Reichardt and ‘Past Lives’ ’ Celine Song are also highly deserving this year). My money’s on the academy rewarding the movie that rescued a severely sagging box office.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
3. Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
4. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
5. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
“Best director comes down to only five: who gets left out? Bradley Cooper for his second feature in which he stars, ‘Maestro’? Alexander Payne, who may have to settle for cheering on his ‘The Holdovers’ screenwriter? Right now, the battle of the auteurs pits Christopher Nolan vs. Greta Gerwig vs. Yorgos Lanthimos.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
2. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)
3. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
4. Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Celine Song (“Past Lives”)
“Jonathan Glazer has made four daring, distinctive films in 23 years – ‘Sexy Beast,’ ‘Birth,’ ‘Under the Skin’ and, now, ‘The Zone of Interest,’ a chilling look at Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss and his family living in the shadow of the concentration camp. It’s a damning assessment of humans’ ability to deny truths that are inconvenient to their ability to lead lives of oblivious comfort.”
Emma Stone’s all-in performance that powers the wild, ferocious “Poor Things” is on top of Round 1 of the BuzzMeter. (Also pictured: Ramy Youssef)
(Yorgos Lanthimos/Searchlight Pictures)
Oscar winner Emma Stone’s utterly committed work powers Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” (he also directed her to a nom in “The Favourite”); she tops the Round-1 voting.
Glenn Whipp says, “It’s immediately apparent from the moment Emma Stone lurches on screen as the Frankenstein-like creation in ‘Poor Things’ that we’re witnessing a fearless performance of the first order … give her that second Oscar already.”
Her lead is tenuous, however: Only two points over Lily Gladstone for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” despite some disagreement in the panel about whether Gladstone should be considered lead or supporting (The studio is submitting her as lead).
Justin Chang says, “Lily Gladstone: lead or supporting? Apple says lead, a decision that reads as a strategic ‘though just short of cynical’ attempt to brand the hotly debated ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ as an Osage-centric narrative. I lean supporting, mainly due to screen time and narrative emphasis, though I’m sympathetic to counterarguments citing the outsized emotional impact of Gladstone’s performance. She’s astonishing either way.”
Meanwhile, Anne Thompson considers it “a two-way race between Emma Stone … and Carey Mulligan.” Dave Karger says “Annette Bening and Emma Stone seem like locks.”
“Sandra Hüller’s two roles — her excellent turn in ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and her disturbing role as a Nazi wife in ‘Zone of Interest’ — should definitely put her in the running,” says Claudia Puig. “Greta Lee’s sublimely sensitive portrayal in ‘Past Lives’ merits a nomination, as does the excellent Michelle Williams for her understated performance in ‘Showing Up.’ Less likely, but just as worthy, is Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s layered and bittersweet performance in ‘You Hurt My Feelings.’ ”
Among the notables not receiving first-round votes: Leonie Benesch (“The Teachers’ Lounge”); Jessica Chastain (“Memory”); Jodie Comer (“The Bikeriders”); Eve Hewson (“Flora and Son”); Helen Mirren (“Golda”); Julianne Moore (“May December”); Cailee Spaeny (“Priscilla”); Michelle Williams (“Showing Up”).
1. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
2. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
4. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
5. Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)
6. Margot Robbie (“Barbie”)
7. Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Origin”)
9. Michelle Williams (“Showing Up”)
10. Anjanue Ellis-Taylor (“The Nickel Boys”)
11. Teyana Taylor (“A Thousand and One”)
12. Halle Bailey (“The Little Mermaid”)
13. Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”)
14. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“You Hurt My Feelings”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
2. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
3. Teyana Taylor (“A Thousand and One”)
4. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
5. Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)
“Lily Gladstone: lead or supporting? Apple says lead, a decision that reads as a strategic (though just short of cynical) attempt to brand the hotly debated ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ as an Osage-centric narrative. I lean supporting, mainly due to screen time and narrative emphasis, though I’m sympathetic to counterarguments citing the outsized emotional impact of Gladstone’s performance. She’s astonishing either way.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Origin”)
3. Anjanue Ellis-Taylor (“The Nickel Boys”)
4. Halle Bailey (“The Little Mermaid”)
5. Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”)
“Lily Gladstone for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is just about a given in this category because she’s excellent in a thankless role, yet one without which the realities of the tragedy and heartbreak of this tale cannot be portrayed. This is not unlike the part Lupita Nyong’o toiled for in ‘12 Years a Slave’ — thankless and Oscar-worthy.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Annette Bening (“Nyad”)
2. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
3. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
4. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
“Like last year, there are enough powerhouse lead female turns this year to fill two rosters of five. Annette Bening and Emma Stone seem like locks, while Lily Gladstone, Carey Mulligan, and ‘Barbie’ lead Margot Robbie can’t be counted out. In a weaker year, ‘Anatomy of a Fall’s’ Sandra Hüller and ‘Past Lives’ ‘ Greta Lee would have no trouble making the list.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Michelle Williams (“Showing Up”)
3. Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)
4. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
5. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“You Hurt My Feelings”)
“This could be Lily Gladstone’s year for her beautifully restrained performance in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon.’ However, Sandra Hüller’s two roles—her excellent turn in ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and her disturbing role as a Nazi wife in ‘Zone of Interest’ — should definitely put her in the running. Greta Lee’s sublimely sensitive portrayal in ‘Past Lives’ merits a nomination, as does the excellent Michelle Williams for her understated performance in ‘Showing Up.’ Less likely, but just as worthy, is Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s layered and bittersweet performance in ‘You Hurt My Feelings.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
2. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)
3. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
4. Margot Robbie (“Barbie”)
5. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
“Lead actress is a two-way race between Emma Stone (‘Poor Things’) vying for her second Oscar as a woman with a transplanted brain, and two-time nominee Carey Mulligan (‘Maestro’) trying for her first as the glamorous wife of composer-conductor Leonard Bernstein.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)
2. Margot Robbie (“Barbie”)
3. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Greta Lee (“Past Lives”)
5. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
“It’s immediately apparent from the moment Emma Stone lurches on screen as the Frankenstein-like creation in ‘Poor Things’ that we’re witnessing a fearless performance of the first order. And then it just keeps getting better, as Stone takes her character on a journey of liberation, moving from childlike curiosity to voracious desire, finally landing on enlightened independence that’s thrilling to witness. Give her that second Oscar already.”
Andrew Scott (left; pictured with Paul Mescal, right) tops the BuzzMeter in Round 1 for his deeply felt work in the queer romance with ghostly elements, “All of Us Strangers.”
(Jonathan Hession/Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Scott is way out in front in Round 1 (by eight points over Cillian Murphy) for his searching performance in the haunting romance, “All of Us Strangers.”
Glenn Whipp says Scott “boasts a long resume of distinguished credits in British theater, the BBC series ‘Sherlock’ and, of course, the rather handsome priest on ‘Fleabag.’ With ‘All of Us Strangers,’ he finally has a film role worthy of his talent … It’s a soul-stirring turn filled with vulnerability, openness and a beauty that shatters.”
“Basically, there’s Andrew Scott in ‘All of Us Strangers’ and there’s everyone else,” says Justin Chang, before listing an “everyone else” roster of highly praised international performances.
Claudia Puig writes, “Best actor, by all rights, should go to Andrew Scott for his masterfully nuanced and soulful performance in ‘All of Us Strangers,’ closely followed by Colman Domingo’s dazzling turn in ‘Rustin’ and Jeffrey Wright’s witty portrayal in ‘American Fiction.’ ”
As to the horse race, Anne Thompson says, “For now, it’s Cillian Murphy’s to lose for the title role in ‘Oppenheimer,’ while Andrew Scott (Hot Priest in ‘Fleabag’) could move up in the rankings as more people see his bravura performance.”
Dave Karger says, “Nine-time nominee Bradley Cooper delivers a career-best performance in ‘Maestro’ and could be a 12- or 13-time nominee within a few months. Could this finally be his year?”
Among the notable performances not on the first-round list: Paul Dano (“Dumb Money”); Zac Efron (“The Iron Claw”); Anthony Hopkins (“Freud’s Last Session”); Barry Keoghan (“Saltburn”); Joaquin Phoenix (“Napoleon”).
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
5. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
6. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
7. Jamie Foxx (“The Burial”)
8. Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”)
9. Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”)
“Basically, there’s Andrew Scott in ‘All of Us Strangers’ and there’s everyone else. But that everyone else does include some terrific lead actors whom I wish had more of a chance, including Christian Friedel (‘The Zone of Interest’), Elliot Crosset Hove (‘Godland’), Thomas Schubert (‘Afire’), Michael Thomas (‘Rimini’) and the great Koji Yakusho (‘Perfect Days’), who won a well-deserved prize at Cannes.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Jamie Foxx (“The Burial”)
4. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
5. Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”)
“Matt Damon’s natural and deeply felt performance in ‘Air’ is not showy, but good. The same is true of Paul Giamatti in his first reteaming with Alexander Payne since ‘Sideways,’ for ‘The Holdovers.’ Still, the academy likes showy – so probably not. Jamie Fox is showy in ‘The Burial’ and very good, so maybe. One would also love to see the always-perfect Jeffrey Wright for ‘American Fiction’ and Teo Yoo for ‘Past Lives.’ Assured noms for Leo in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and Andrew Scott for ‘All of Us Strangers.’ ”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
4. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
5. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
“Nine-time nominee Bradley Cooper delivers a career-best performance in ‘Maestro’ and could be a 12- or 13-time nominee within a few months. Could this finally be his year? He’ll have to fend off film-anchoring performances from the likes of Cillian Murphy and Colman Domingo. Worthy underdogs abound here, including ‘Saltburn’s’ Barry Keoghan, ‘Dream Scenario’s’ Nicolas Cage, and Andrew Scott, pitch-perfect in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ ”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
4. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
5. Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”)
“Best actor, by all rights, should go to Andrew Scott for his masterfully nuanced and soulful performance in ‘All of Us Strangers,’ closely followed by Colman Domingo’s dazzling turn in ‘Rustin’ and Jeffrey Wright’s witty portrayal in ‘American Fiction.’ But don’t count out the always-superb Paul Giamatti as a sardonic prep school teacher in ‘The Holdovers’ and Nicolas Cage as a hapless family man in ‘Dream Scenario.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
3. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
“Lead actor could move around over the next few months. For now, it’s Cillian Murphy’s to lose for the title role in ‘Oppenheimer,’ while Andrew Scott (Hot Priest in ‘Fleabag’) could move up in the rankings as more people see his bravura performance in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ Bradley Cooper is earning raves for his makeup-enhanced portrayal of composer-conductor Leonard Bernstein. Leonardo DiCaprio has won before, and voters may not consider his turn as a dimwitted stooge in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ his best work to date.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”)
2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
4. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
5. Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”)
“Andrew Scott is 47 and boasts a long resume of distinguished credits in British theater, the BBC series ‘Sherlock’ and, of course, the rather handsome priest on ‘Fleabag.’ With ‘All of Us Strangers,’ he finally has a film role worthy of his talent, playing a solitary man dealing with the ghosts of his past and, perhaps, his present. It’s a soul-stirring turn filled with vulnerability, openness and a beauty that shatters.”
It’s a tie at the top of Round 1 of the BuzzMeter’s supporting actress picks: Jodie Foster of “NYAD” (left) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph of “The Holdovers” (right).
(Kimberley French/Netflix; Seacia Pavao)
In the first-round polling, Jodie Foster (“Nyad”) is tied at the top with Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Leftovers”): Randolph “has spent the past four years proving that she isn’t bound by genre,” says Glenn Whipp. “Her understated turn … showcases her dramatic talents in a way that makes her first Oscar nomination feel inevitable.”
Justin Chang writes, “I’m slotting Lily Gladstone in this race despite her lead-actress campaign for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ though it’s worth noting that hers isn’t the only performance that could conceivably fall into either race. Juliette Binoche is arguably a lead in ‘The Taste of Things.’ And in terms of screen time and emotional impact, I’d say Jodie Foster is on even footing with Annette Bening in ‘Nyad,’ a movie whose very message boils down to: Every supporting player is a star.”
Some superb performances may be too brief for even supporting attention, such as Patti LuPone’s pure poison in “Beau Is Afraid”; Tracee Ellis Ross’ bullseye-hitting turn in “American Fiction” and Carey Mulligan’s unfailingly missing-the-mark (and memorably so) role in “Saltburn.”
“The number of minutes the extraordinary Viola Davis is in ‘Air’ is few, but perfect,” says Tim Cogshell.
Dave Karger, meanwhile, guesses that “ ‘The Color Purple,’ still largely unseen, is the key that will unlock this category. Both Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson are possible nominees just based on their respective roles.”
Some of the notable performances not receiving first-round recognition: Vanessa Kirby (“Napoleon”); Patti LuPone (“Beau Is Afraid”); Parker Posey (“Beau Is Afraid”); Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”); Florence Pugh (“Oppenheimer”); Tracee Ellis Ross (“American Fiction”); Jurnee Smollett (“The Burial”); Leslie Uggams (“American Fiction”).
1. (tie) Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
1. (tie) Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
3. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
4. (tie) Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
4. (tie) Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. (tie) Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)
7. Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
7. (tie) Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
9. (tie) Viola Davis (“Air”)
9. (tie) Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
9. (tie) H.E.R. (“The Color Purple”)
9. (tie) Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)
13. (tie) Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
13. (tie) Julianne Moore (“May December”)
15. Erika Alexander (“American Fiction”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)
3. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
4. Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
5. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
“I’m slotting Lily Gladstone in this race despite her lead actress campaign for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon,’ though it’s worth noting that hers isn’t the only performance that could conceivably fall into either race. Juliette Binoche is arguably a lead in ‘The Taste of Things.’ And in terms of screen time and emotional impact, I’d say Jodie Foster is on even footing with Annette Bening in ‘Nyad,’ a movie whose very message boils down to: Every supporting player is a star.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
2. H.E.R. (“The Color Purple”)
3. Viola Davis (“Air”)
4. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
5. Erika Alexander (“American Fiction”)
“The number of minutes the extraordinary Viola Davis is in ‘Air’ is few, but perfect. Beyond the nominee-designate, a position once held by Meryl Streep, one has yet to see Taraji P. Henson (‘The Color Purple’), H.E.R. (‘The Color Purple’), Danielle Brooks (‘The Color Purple’) and Erika Alexander in ‘American Fiction,’ but we are rooting for them all.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
3. Julianne Moore (“May December”)
4. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
5. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
“ ‘The Color Purple,’ still largely unseen, is the key that will unlock this category. Both Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson are possible nominees just based on their respective roles. Two-time Emmy winner Claire Foy could earn her first AMPAS recognition thanks to her moving turn in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ And two past lead-actress winners—Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore—are great bets for their supporting work in ‘Nyad’ and ‘May December.’ ”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
3. Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)
4. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
5. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
“Da’Vine Joy Randolph has the edge here for her emotionally layered role as a grieving mom in ‘The Holdovers.’ If Apple had put Lily Gladstone in the supporting actress category, she would have been the one to beat. It still will be a tough contest, with Jodie Foster as a likely nominee for her lovely portrayal of a supportive coach in ‘Nyad’ and Claire Foy as a traditional mom in ‘All of Us Strangers.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
2. Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)
3. Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
4. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
5. Viola Davis (“Air”)
“Supporting actress could go to Da’Vine Joy Randolph (‘The Holdovers’) as the maternal prep school cook who looks after a miserable professor (Paul Giamatti) and his equally unhappy student (Dominic Sessa) left at school over the Christmas holidays. Her rival could be Sandra Hüller, who chillingly plays the wife of the commandant of Auschwitz in ‘The Zone of Interest.’”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
2. Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
3. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
4. Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
5. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
“Da’Vine Joy Randolph broke out opposite Eddie Murphy in the 2019 comedy ‘Dolemite Is My Name’ and has spent the past four years proving that she isn’t bound by genre. Her understated turn as a cafeteria worker grieving the loss of her son in Alexander Payne’s bittersweet ‘The Holdovers’ showcases her dramatic talents in a way that makes her first Oscar nomination feel inevitable.”
How can you tell them apart? Robert Downey, Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) and Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) are tied atop the BuzzMeter’s first-round picks in the supporting-actor race.
(Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures; Jaap Buitendijk / Warner Bros.)
It’s “Barbenheimer” made flesh as Robert Downey, Jr. and Ryan Gosling are tied for No. 1 in the first round for giving, let’s face it, exactly the same performance in identical films.
“By mid-summer, many had already pegged this as a ‘Barbenheimer’ race: a showdown between Robert Downey Jr. at his Marvel-liberated best and Ryan Gosling at his most self-mockingly hilarious,” says Justin Chang. “Neither would be an undeserving winner, though take them out of the running and you’d still have an incredibly rich field.”
“He’s not just Ken,” says Glenn Whipp of Gosling. “He’s a revelation.”
Dave Karger says, “Mark Ruffalo is effectively hammy in ‘Poor Things,’ while breakout Charles Melton more than holds his own opposite Oscar winners Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore in ‘May December.’ Special mention to Glenn Howerton who walks away with Blackberry thanks to his transformative performance.”
Tim Cogshell says, beyond the frontrunners, he’s “hopeful for Colman Domingo for ‘The Color Purple,’ Glynn Turman in ‘Rustin,’ Chris Rock in the same film, and Sterling K. Brown in ‘American Fiction’ because he should have been nominated for ‘Honk For Jesus, Save Your Soul’ last year.”
Some of note who did not receive votes this round: Willem Dafoe (“Poor Things”); Noah Galvin (“Theater Camp”); Matthew Goode (“Freud’s Last Session”); Joseph Gordon-Levitt (“Flora and Son”); Tommy Lee Jones (“The Burial”); Marshawn Lynch (“Bottoms”); Jonathan Majors (“Creed III”); Paul Mescal (“All of Us Strangers”); Chris Messina (“Air”); Peter Sarsgaard (“Memory”); Liev Schreiber (“Golda”); Jeffrey Wright (“Rustin”).
1. (tie) Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
1. (tie) Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
3. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
4. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”)
6. (tie) Charles Melton (“May December”)
6. (tie) Colman Domingo (“The Color Purple”)
8. (tie) Glynn Turman (“Rustin”)
8. (tie) John Magaro (“Past Lives”)
10. (tie) Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)
10. (tie) Chris Rock (Rustin)
10. (tie) Jamie Bell (“All of Us Strangers”)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
3. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
4. John Magaro (“Past Lives”)
5. Jamie Bell (“All of Us Strangers”)
“By mid-summer, many had already pegged this as a ‘Barbenheimer’ race: a showdown between Robert Downey Jr. at his Marvel-liberated best and Ryan Gosling at his most self-mockingly hilarious. Neither would be an undeserving winner, though take them out of the running and you’d still have an incredibly rich field. It feels wrong to leave out Paul Mescal ‘All of Us Strangers’), Willem Dafoe (‘Poor Things’), Glenn Howerton (‘BlackBerry’), Charles Melton (‘May December’) and Chris Messina (‘Air’), among others.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
3. Colman Domingo (“The Color Purple”)
4. Glynn Turman (“Rustin”)
5. Chris Rock (“Rustin”)
“One can imagine Ryan Gosling getting the nod for his Ken in ‘Barbie’ and even Ben Affleck for his spare but endearing turn in ‘Air.’ Still, the academy is more likely to lean into the traditional, which includes De Niro for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and Robert Downey Jr. for ‘Oppenheimer.’ We are hopeful for Colman Domingo for ‘The Color Purple,’ Glynn Turman in ‘Rustin,’ Chris Rock in the same film, and Sterling K. Brown in ‘American Fiction’ because he should have been nominated for ‘Honk For Jesus, Save Your Soul’ last year.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
2. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
3. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
4. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
5. Charles Melton (“May December”)
“Two respected Roberts (Downey and De Niro) lead the pack here, while ‘Barbie’ scene-stealer Ryan Gosling should easily score his third career nomination. Beyond that, it’s a bit tougher to predict. Mark Ruffalo is effectively hammy in ‘Poor Things,’ while breakout Charles Melton more than holds his own opposite Oscar winners Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore in ‘May December.’ Special mention to Glenn Howerton who walks away with Blackberry thanks to his transformative performance.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
2. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
3. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
4. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
5. Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”)
“It seems probable that it will be a contest between Robert De Niro (who’s won twice before and been nominated 8 times) and twice-nominated Ryan Gosling as the inimitably hilarious Ken in the summer phenomenon ‘Barbie.’ He’s never won and this could be his year. Then again, comic performances rarely win. More serious, and also worthy, are Jamie Bell as a straitlaced father from the ‘80s in ‘All of Us Strangers’ and Robert Downey Jr. for his nearly unrecognizable turn in ‘Oppenheimer.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
2. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
3. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
4. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
5. Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)
“Supporting actor is a tight contest between ‘Oppenheimer’ villain Robert Downey, Jr. and ‘Barbie’ scene-stealer Ryan Gosling as Ken. Does anyone else have a chance? Watch out for Mark Ruffalo in ‘Poor Things,’ who surprises in a slapstick comedic role as an older rake who gives the rapidly maturing Bella (Emma Stone) the continental (and sexual) education she seeks — and then falls for her.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
2. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)
3. Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”)
4. Charles Melton (“May December”)
5. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
“Ryan Gosling’s ‘Ken-ergy’ played an essential part in the success of Greta Gerwig’s subversive, self-aware, kind-of-sort-of-but-not-really Mattel commercial ‘Barbie.’ Gosling sings. Gosling dances. He also rollerblades, embraces the patriarchy, battles insecurities and grapples with the meaning of life itself. Gosling is game for it all, the earnestness, the silliness, the ‘literal’ muscularity. He’s not just Ken. He’s a revelation.”
It’s based on existing IP but is apparently still an original screenplay … at any rate, Greta Gerwig is the BuzzMeter’s top pick in Round 1. (L-r) Margot Robbie; Alexandra Shipp; Michael Cera; Gerwig (foreground); America Ferrera and Ariana Greenblatt on the set of “Barbie.”
(Warner Bros. Pictures)
What’s in an original screenplay? The writers’ branch of the academy will have the final say (as it has done in the past, when it switched the categories of scripts such as those for “Syriana” and “Moonlight”), but the Greta Gerwig-Noah Baumbach script for “Barbie” is being campaigned by Warners as original, rather than adapted. Clearly, there has been a host of animated “Barbie” movies and TV shows (as well as books and comics), but just as clearly, the Gerwig-Baumbach script is an entirely different animal compared to those — can anyone find the plot thread in “Barbie in A Mermaid Tale 2” in which, driven by questions about death, she travels to the real world?
Anyhoo, “Barbie” sits atop the BuzzMeter’s first-round selections in the category of original screenplay.
“Assuming voters abide by the studio’s campaign, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s witty ‘Barbie’ screenplay will be the one to beat here,” says Dave Karger. “For the fifth slot, I’m rooting for the riveting and complex courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ which remains, in my mind, the most thought-provoking film of the year.”
Claudia Puig says, apart from “Barbie,” “I predict a three-way contest between Celine Song’s ‘Past Lives,’ Nicole Holofcener’s ‘You Hurt My Feelings’ and Justine Triet for her French courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall.’ May the best woman win.”
Of the Finnish-German romantic comedy “Fallen Leaves,” Glenn Whipp writes, “There’s a depth of feeling that you don’t usually find in this sodden genre, along with some terrific deadpan humor. And the love story between two blue-collar workers is sublime. It’s a hopeful film set in a hardened world, the perfect antidote to our current, trying times.“
Among the contenders not on the first-round list: “Dream Scenario” (Kristoffer Borgli); “Fingernails” (Christos Nikou); “The Iron Claw” (Sean Durkin); “Origin” (Ava DuVernay”); “The Persian Version” (Maryam Keshavarz); “Showing Up” (Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt); “A Thousand and One” (A.V. Rockwell).
1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
3. (tie) “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
3. (tie) “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
5. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
6. “May December” — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
7. (tie) “Fallen Leaves” — Aki Kaurismäki
7. (tie) “Rustin” — Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black
7. (tie) “Showing Up” — Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt
10. (tie) “Asteroid City” — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
10. (tie) “You Hurt My Feelings” — Nicole Holofcener
10. (tie) “Saltburn” — Emerald Fennell
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
2. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
3. “May December” — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
4. “Showing Up” — Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt
5. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
“It’s been great seeing more non-English-language scripts pop up in this category over the years, including ‘Roma,’ ‘The Worst Person in the World’ and one well-deserved winner, ‘Parasite.’ In addition to ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ which admittedly has more than a smattering of English dialogue, it’d be lovely to see movies like Christian Petzold’s ‘Afire’ (German) and Cristian Mungiu’s ‘R.M.N.’ (Romanian, Hungarian, German, English and French) in the mix — lovely, but unlikely.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
3. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
4. “Rustin” — Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black
5. “Saltburn” — Emerald Fennell
“These should be the nominees for best original screenplay: ‘Barbie’ by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach; ‘The Holdovers’ by David Hemingson; ‘Past Lives’ by Celine Song; ‘Rustin’ by Julian Breece and Dustin Lance Black; and ‘Saltburn’ by Emerald Fennell. I’m hopeful for the reverse order regarding winners, but I haven’t seen them all – yet.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
3. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
4. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
5. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
“Assuming voters abide by the studio’s campaign, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s witty ‘Barbie’ screenplay will be the one to beat here, alongside more intimate scripts like ‘Maestro,’ ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘Past Lives.’ For the fifth slot, I’m rooting for the riveting and complex courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ which remains, in my mind, the most thought-provoking film of the year.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
2. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
3. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
4. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
5. “You Hurt My Feelings” — Nicole Holofcener
“I predict a three-way contest between Celine Song’s ‘Past Lives,’ Nicole Holofcener’s ‘You Hurt My Feelings’ and Justine Triet for her French courtroom drama ‘Anatomy of a Fall.’ May the best woman win. And never underestimate the formidable power of the ‘Barbie’ juggernaut and her much-admired screenwriters, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
2. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson
3. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
4. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
5. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
“Even though it’s a comedy, ‘Barbie’ could run away with the win for the fearlessly imaginative Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, but playwright-turned-writer-director Celine Song’s indie breakout ‘Past Lives,’ and TV scribe David Hemingson’s poignant Christmas comedy ‘The Holdovers’ are also competitive.“
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “Past Lives” — Celine Song
2. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
3. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari
4. “Fallen Leaves” — Aki Kaurismäki
5. “Asteroid City” — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
“Playing at Telluride, ‘Fallen Leaves’ was introduced as a romantic comedy filtered through the distinct sensibility of Finnish filmmaker Aki Kaurismäki. The movie features a handshake, a kiss on the cheek and a kiss on the forehead. That’s it. But there’s also a depth of feeling that you don’t usually find in this sodden genre, along with some terrific deadpan humor. And the love story between two blue-collar workers is sublime. It’s a hopeful film set in a hardened world, the perfect antidote to our current, trying times.”
The BuzzMeter considers “Oppenheimer” auteur Christopher Nolan the frontrunner for three Oscars: best picture, director and adapted screenplay (from “American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer” by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherman).
(Joe Pugliese / For The Times)
Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” screenplay manages to be epic and intimate at the same time (and also manages to almost completely dodge the fallout — literal and figurative — of the protagonist’s crowning accomplishment) and is well out in front of the pack (by seven points) in Round 1.
Panelists cite its “astonishing biographical compression” (Justin Chang) and call it a “historic tour-de-force” (Anne Thompson). Some Buzzpeople alternately see it as a two-way race between “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon,” or “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things.”
Thompson says of the latter matchup, “Nolan’s blockbuster may have the advantage, as Lanthimos pushes the edge of the envelope with his feminist and overtly sexual coming-of-age tale.”
“If there’s any justice,” says Claudia Puig, “this Oscar will go to ‘All of Us Strangers’ for Andrew Haigh’s brilliant adaptation of the novel by Taichi Yamada.”
Tim Cogshell writes, “Hopeful possibilities for me include ‘The Color Purple,’ adapted by Marcus Gardley; Cord Jefferson for ‘American Fiction’; and Andrew Haigh for ‘All of Us Strangers,’ a beautifully and cleverly scripted adaptation.”
“American Fiction,” making the Top 5 this round, emerges as a panel favorite:
Dave Karger says, “Of course, there’s also a chance ‘Barbie’ could end up here if the writers’ branch ignores the suggested original category placement. And don’t ignore Cord Jefferson’s searing, satirical work on Toronto festival winner ‘American Fiction.’”
“Cord Jefferson’s ‘American Fiction’ has won audience awards from the Toronto, Mill Valley and Middleburg film festivals, so it must be doing something right,” writes Glenn Whipp. “It’s silly, sharp, heartfelt and, yes, the best kind of crowd-pleaser.”
1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
3. (tie) “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. (tie) “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
5. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
6. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
7. “The Color Purple” — Marcus Gardley
8. “The Taste of Things” — Tran Anh Hung
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
3. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
4. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
“It’s hard to choose a favorite in this category — do you go with the staggering biographical compression of ‘Oppenheimer’? The adroit reshufflings of narrative and perspective in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Poor Things’? I don’t know, but I hope voters take a moment to not only watch ‘The Zone of Interest,’ but also take a look at Martin Amis’ much plottier, prosier novel — and appreciate the ruthless skill with which Jonathan Glazer pared nearly all of it away.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
2. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
3. “The Color Purple” — Marcus Gardley
4. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
5. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
“The adapted screenplay nominees will include Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese for their very long ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and Christopher Nolan for the almost equally long ‘Oppenheimer.’ Hopeful possibilities for me include ‘The Color Purple,’ adapted by Marcus Gardley; Cord Jefferson for ‘American Fiction’; and Andrew Haigh for ‘All of Us Strangers,’ a beautifully and cleverly scripted adaptation.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
4. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
5. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
“Best picture frontrunners ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ are automatic nominees here, while more adventurous voters will support ‘Poor Things’ and ‘The Zone of Interest.’ Of course, there’s also a chance ‘Barbie’ could end up here if the writers’ branch ignores the suggested original category placement. And don’t ignore Cord Jefferson’s searing, satirical work on Toronto festival winner ‘American Fiction.’”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon” — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
3. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
4. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
5. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
“If there’s any justice, this Oscar will go to ‘All of Us Strangers’ for Andrew Haigh’s brilliant adaptation of the novel by Taichi Yamada. But the cleverly satirical ‘American Fiction’ will surely be a major contender, as will the much-acclaimed critical favorites ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Oppenheimer,’ both adapted from bestselling books.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
2. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
3. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer
4. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
5. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
“It’s between Christopher Nolan’s historic tour-de-force ‘Oppenheimer’ and Yorgos Lanthimos’ lavishly imagined period fantasy ‘Poor Things.’ Nolan’s blockbuster may have the advantage, as Lanthimos pushes the edge of the envelope with his feminist and overtly sexual coming-of-age tale.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “All of Us Strangers” — Andrew Haigh
2. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara
3. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson
4. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan
5. “The Taste of Things” — Tran Anh Hung
“Cord Jefferson’s ‘American Fiction’ has won audience awards from the Toronto, Mill Valley and Middleburg film festivals, so it must be doing something right. Jefferson, who wrote and directed the film, packs a lot into its two hours. It’s a satire on the book world and Hollywood adaptations as well as wry drama about a Black college professor and author fuming about phonies and the commodification of Black narratives. It’s silly, sharp, heartfelt and, yes, the best kind of crowd-pleaser.”
This bucolic scene is typical of “The Zone of Interest,” a snapshot of the household of Rudolf Höss, commandant of the Auschwitz concentration camp. The study of the banality of evil captures the day-to-day, minor concerns of his family as they live more or less placidly beside the house of horrors Höss oversaw. The film is far out in front in the international feature race; it’s the only consensus pick in Round 1.
(Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival)
In recent years, there has often been an international-feature contender that came to be seen as inevitable — “Roma,” “Parasite,” “All Quiet on the Western Front” among them. Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” appears to have taken that mantle this year — or so says the panel — as the deadpan study of the banality of evil is the sole consensus pick in the first round of the BuzzMeter.
“ ‘The Zone of Interest,’ which is also a strong contender for best picture, will certainly become the United Kingdom’s third-ever nominee in this category and quite possibly its first winner,” says Dave Karger.
Anne Thompson says, “Nothing will catch up with it.”
But beyond that sense of inevitability, a number of other international entries have passionate support from the panel.
Tim Cogshell says, “ ‘’Bye Bye, Tiberias,’ from Palestine, will either be shunned or embraced by the academy; It should be embraced.” He also cites “The Teachers’ Lounge” (from Germany) and “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine) as contenders.
Seeing “lots of worthy possibilities,” Claudia Puig cites “Finland’s tale of working-class lovers, ‘Fallen Leaves’ and Mexico’s poignant family drama ‘Tótem,’ ‘Perfect Days,’ a poetic slice-of-life from Japan and either the French gastronomic feast for the eyes, ‘The Taste of Things’ or the timely German classroom drama The Teachers’ Lounge.’ ” as “Zone” alternatives.
Meanwhile, Justin Chang would have you “Spare a thought for Romania,” as he lists the many worthy titles the country has submitted in the last 20 years, all for nought. “I’d like to think things will go differently for Radu Jude’s extraordinary ‘Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World,’ but do not expect too much from the motion picture academy.”
And Glenn Whipp calls Round 1’s No. 2 film, “The Taste of Things,” “a sumptuous romance … [starring] the legendary Juliette Binoche.” In choosing to submit this film over its other heralded candidate, “Anatomy of a Fall” (which might also have suffered some political pushback), Whipp says “France chose France — or, at least, all the things you associate with France: Food, love, Binoche.”
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
4. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
5. “Tótem” (Mexico)
6. (tie) “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine)
6. (tie) “Bye Bye Tiberias” (Palestine)
6. (tie) “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania)
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Tótem” (Mexico)
4. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
5. “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania)
“Spare a thought for Romania: Has any other country submitted films of such consistently high quality over the past two decades and been greeted with such indifference from voters? A rare nomination for 2020’s ‘Collective’ aside, it’s ridiculous that among ‘The Death of Mr. Lazarescu,’ ‘4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days,’ ‘Police, Adjective,’ ‘Beyond the Hills,’ ‘Aferim!,’ ‘Sieranevada,’ ‘I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History as Barbarians’ and ‘Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn,’ not one succeeded in cracking the final five. I’d like to think things will go differently for Radu Jude’s extraordinary ‘Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World,’ but do not expect too much from the motion picture academy.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
3. “The Taste of Things” (France)
4. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
5. “Bye Bye Tiberias” (Palestine)
“ ‘’Bye Bye, Tiberias,’ from Palestine, will either be shunned or embraced by the academy; It should be embraced. There is chatter about ‘The Zone of Interest’ from the UK, ‘The Teachers’ Lounge’ from Germany, and ‘20 Days in Mariupol’ from Ukraine, among other nations with impressive submissions.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
4. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
5. “Tótem” (Mexico)
“ ‘The Zone of Interest,’ which is also a strong contender for best picture, will certainly become the United Kingdom’s third-ever nominee in this category and quite possibly its first winner. The rest of the roster is a crap shoot: France’s ‘The Taste of Things’ was a favorite amongst international critics at Cannes earlier this year, while beloved filmmaker Aki Kaurismaki (‘Fallen Leaves’) was last represented in this category 20 years ago.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
4. “Tótem” (Mexico)
5. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
“It’s a particularly good category this year, with lots of worthy possibilities: The likeliest nominees are Finland’s tale of working-class lovers, ‘Fallen Leaves’ and Mexico’s poignant family drama ‘Tótem,’ the harrowing German-language drama ‘The Zone of Interest,’ ‘Perfect Days,’ a poetic slice-of-life from Japan and either the French gastronomic feast for the eyes, ‘The Taste of Things’ or the timely German classroom drama The Teachers’ Lounge.’ ”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
3. “The Taste of Things” (France)
4. “Tótem” (Mexico)
5. “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine)
“The international-feature race has an early frontrunner: Jonathan Glazer’s German-language Holocaust drama ‘The Zone of Interest,’ the UK entry. Nothing will catch up with it.”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
2. “The Taste of Things” (France)
3. “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
4. “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
5. “Tótem” (Mexico)
“France had to choose between two great films for its international feature submission – ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘The Taste of Things.’ It went with the latter, a sumptuous romance about the relationship between a renowned chef and his cook, his muse, his life (and if he had his way, his wife), played by the legendary Juliette Binoche. In short, France chose France – or, at least, all the things you associate with France: Food, love, Binoche.”
Take a bow, wood boy. Or is that would-be boy? “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” is the BuzzMeter’s consensus pick to win the Oscar for animated feature.
(GKIDS)
The big news is, of course, the return of the dean of Japanese animation, Hayao Miyazaki, with a film erupting with beautiful imagination, “The Boy and the Heron.” But there are other major contenders, including the sequel “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which many viewers and critics felt surpassed its Oscar-winning predecessor; a complete rejuvenation of the “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” franchise; and the beautifully rendered and often hilarious “Nimona,” which manages to take great liberties with its source material while remaining true to its heart.
“ ‘The Boy and the Heron’ certainly feels like a farewell; a meditation on resilience in the face of loss as well as a summation of the 82-year-old legend’s career,” says Glenn Whipp.
Claudia Puig sees a two-way race: “Think spiders and herons facing off. It will be ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ vs (spiderversus) Hayao Miyazaki’s latest masterpiece, ‘The Boy and the Heron.’ Either one is likely to trounce the rest of the competition.”
On the other hand: “ ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem’ is the best Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles anything in decades,” says Tim Cogshell. “ ‘Elemental’ did not do well at the box office, but I’ve noticed actual children love it. Perhaps the academy will notice this also.”
Dave Karger says, “Netflix’s boundary-pushing ‘Nimona,’ featuring several LGBTQ+ characters and irreverent humor, would be a welcome addition to the category.”
“Any year that brings us the latest final film from Hayao Miyazaki is a good one,” says Justin Chang, admitting he hasn’t seen “nearly enough feature-length animation this year. I’m pretty sure I didn’t see ‘PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie,’ although after a while, the near-hourly PR emails made me think that I had.”
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “They Shot the Piano Player”
5. “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
6. “Suzume”
7. “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
8. (tie) “Nimona”
8. (tie) “Wish”
10. “Robot Dreams”
Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Suzume”
3. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
4. “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
5. “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
“Any year that brings us the latest final film from Hayao Miyazaki is a good one, and it’s heartening that a number of studio titles (including ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ and ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem’) have their strengths as well. As usual, though, I haven’t seen nearly enough feature-length animation this year. I’m pretty sure I didn’t see ‘PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie,’ although after a while, the near-hourly PR emails made me think that I had.”
Tim Cogshell
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
2. “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
3. “The Boy and the Heron”
4. “They Shot the Piano Player”
5. “Elemental”
“ ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ is popular, entertaining, and sound, while ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem’ is the best Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles anything in decades. Other notable contenders include ‘The Boy and the Heron,’ ‘They Shot the Piano Player’ and ‘Elemental.’ ‘Elemental’ did not do well at the box office, but I’ve noticed actual children love it. Perhaps the academy will notice this also.”
Dave Karger
TCM
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “They Shot the Piano Player”
5. “Nimona”
“Acclaimed filmmaker Hayao Miyazaki’s final film, ‘The Boy and the Heron,’ leads the way here alongside the latest Spider-Verse entry. Disney will certainly be represented by either ‘Elemental’ or ‘Wish,’ while Netflix’s boundary-pushing ‘Nimona,’ featuring several LGBTQ+ characters and irreverent humor, would be a welcome addition to the category.”
Claudia Puig
LAist 89.3’s FilmWeek
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “They Shot the Piano Player”
4. “Elemental”
5. “Nimona”
“Think spiders and herons facing off. It will be ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ vs (spiderversus) Hayao Miyazaki’s latest masterpiece, ‘The Boy and the Heron.’ Either one is likely to trounce the rest of the competition. Also likely to be nominated is Pixar’s ‘Elemental.’ Probably in the mix will be the latest installment of ‘Chicken Run.’ Rounding out the category will be nostalgic favorites ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles’ up against ‘Super Mario Bros.’.”
Anne Thompson
IndieWire
1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
2. “The Boy and the Heron”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Wish”
5. “Robot Dreams”
“ ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,’ the blockbuster sequel that outperformed the Oscar-winning original, could win again. Or, Oscar voters could choose to reward the return of the great Hayao Miyazaki (the Oscar-winning ‘Spirited Away’) for directing the critical fave ‘The Boy and the Heron.’ ”
Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times
1. “The Boy and the Heron”
2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
5. “They Shot the Piano Player”
“Hayao Miyazaki announced his retirement a decade ago following the release of his eleventh film, ‘The Wind Rises.’ It wasn’t the first time Miyazaki had expressed a desire to step away from feature animation and, given that history, it’s not surprising that it didn’t stick. His latest, ‘The Boy and the Heron,’ certainly feels like a farewell, though, a meditation on resilience in the face of loss as well as a summation of the 82-year-old legend’s career.”
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