Effect of volcanic eruptions significantly underestimated in climate projections, study shows
(a) Annual eruption probability based on ice-core (Sigl et al., 2022) and satellite (S. Carn, 2022) datasets. (b) Empirical cumulative probability density function of the SO2 mass distribution of the 1,000-member stochastic scenarios and the Holvol ice-core dataset (95% bootstrap confidence bounds in light gray). We estimate the probability of exceeding CMIP6 volcanic flux using the 1850–2014 flux from current volcanic emission inventories (S. Carn,…