Census data shows population growth bouncing back

Population growth in Colorado accelerated this year, but it remains significantly below the pre-pandemic pace and gains fell short of what state demographers had expected.

Colorado added 36,571 people to its population over the past year, bringing the total to 5,877,610 as of July 1 of this year, according to vintage estimates the U.S. Census Bureau released last week.

That is up from a gain of 29,443 people in the July 1, 2022, count and 26,377 in the July 1, 2021, count. But even though population gains were 24% higher in 2023 than they were in 2022, the state remains well short of the 75,000 a year added on average last decade and the 51,900 the state demography office had forecast.

Colorado’s population growth rate was in line with the national average. But the popularity that western states long enjoyed has shifted to southern states, which accounted for nearly 9 in 10 of the population gains the country experienced in the most recent count, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Although births declined, this was tempered by the near 9% decrease in deaths. Ultimately, fewer deaths paired with rebounding immigration resulted in the nation experiencing its largest population gain since 2018,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau, in a release.

Births in the state have remained fairly stable over the past three years at above 62,000 per year, although they were down slightly this year. Last decade, births averaged around 65,000 a year. The death rate has been much more volatile.

Deaths averaged a little over 35,000 people a year in Colorado last decade and rose sharply during the pandemic. There were 49,599 deaths in the 12 months through July 1, 2022, and that number dropped to 45,099 in the most recent count.

Going forward, an aging population is expected to keep the number of deaths higher this decade than last.

Colorado has long stood out for its ability to draw in residents from other states, but more expensive housing costs have tarnished its attractiveness. Net migration, which averaged 45,666 residents a year last decade, started to slow sharply in 2019.

Net migration to Colorado came in at 19,167 in this year’s count, up from 17,185 in the prior year. Both are under half of the pace seen last decade. The number also fell short of the 35,000 net migration number that the State Demography Office had forecast, which was expected to serve as a stepping stone to gains of 40,000 a year in 2024 and 2025.

Slower net migration should provide the state with some breathing room to cover its housing shortfall, but it could also leave employers short of workers and deter companies from relocating here.

“If we don’t see population growth, if we don’t see that net migration, we will absolutely have a decline in our working-age population,” Colorado State Demographer Elizabeth Garner warned last month at the 2023 State Demography Summit in Littleton.

International migrants represented just over six in 10 of the net migrants the state did draw in — 11,931 international versus 7,236 domestic. It marks the second year international migration has outpaced domestic migration in Colorado.

Colorado saw an influx of refugees from Afghanistan in late 2021 and 2022, which was followed by a much larger influx of refugees from Venezuela in the past year.

Even with the two unexpected surges, the state, which is highly dependent on population growth to maintain its economic momentum, hasn’t come anywhere close to matching pre-pandemic levels for migration.

Although the state demography office was nearly spot on in forecasting the “natural increase” or births minus deaths that the state would see in the 2023 population “vintage,” net migration to the state came in significantly below expectations.

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Population growth in Colorado accelerated this year, but it remains significantly below the pre-pandemic pace and gains fell short of what state demographers had expected.

Colorado added 36,571 people to its population over the past year, bringing the total to 5,877,610 as of July 1 of this year, according to vintage estimates the U.S. Census Bureau released last week.

That is up from a gain of 29,443 people in the July 1, 2022, count and 26,377 in the July 1, 2021, count. But even though population gains were 24% higher in 2023 than they were in 2022, the state remains well short of the 75,000 a year added on average last decade and the 51,900 the state demography office had forecast.

Colorado’s population growth rate was in line with the national average. But the popularity that western states long enjoyed has shifted to southern states, which accounted for nearly 9 in 10 of the population gains the country experienced in the most recent count, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Although births declined, this was tempered by the near 9% decrease in deaths. Ultimately, fewer deaths paired with rebounding immigration resulted in the nation experiencing its largest population gain since 2018,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau, in a release.

Births in the state have remained fairly stable over the past three years at above 62,000 per year, although they were down slightly this year. Last decade, births averaged around 65,000 a year. The death rate has been much more volatile.

Deaths averaged a little over 35,000 people a year in Colorado last decade and rose sharply during the pandemic. There were 49,599 deaths in the 12 months through July 1, 2022, and that number dropped to 45,099 in the most recent count.

Going forward, an aging population is expected to keep the number of deaths higher this decade than last.

Colorado has long stood out for its ability to draw in residents from other states, but more expensive housing costs have tarnished its attractiveness. Net migration, which averaged 45,666 residents a year last decade, started to slow sharply in 2019.

Net migration to Colorado came in at 19,167 in this year’s count, up from 17,185 in the prior year. Both are under half of the pace seen last decade. The number also fell short of the 35,000 net migration number that the State Demography Office had forecast, which was expected to serve as a stepping stone to gains of 40,000 a year in 2024 and 2025.

Slower net migration should provide the state with some breathing room to cover its housing shortfall, but it could also leave employers short of workers and deter companies from relocating here.

“If we don’t see population growth, if we don’t see that net migration, we will absolutely have a decline in our working-age population,” Colorado State Demographer Elizabeth Garner warned last month at the 2023 State Demography Summit in Littleton.

International migrants represented just over six in 10 of the net migrants the state did draw in — 11,931 international versus 7,236 domestic. It marks the second year international migration has outpaced domestic migration in Colorado.

Colorado saw an influx of refugees from Afghanistan in late 2021 and 2022, which was followed by a much larger influx of refugees from Venezuela in the past year.

Even with the two unexpected surges, the state, which is highly dependent on population growth to maintain its economic momentum, hasn’t come anywhere close to matching pre-pandemic levels for migration.

Although the state demography office was nearly spot on in forecasting the “natural increase” or births minus deaths that the state would see in the 2023 population “vintage,” net migration to the state came in significantly below expectations.

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