confounding

How to know the unknowable in observational studiesOutlineIntroductionProblem Setup2.1. Causal Graph2.2. Model With and Without Z2.3. Strength of Z as a ConfounderSensitivity Analysis3.1. Goal3.2. Robustness ValuePySensemakrConclusionAcknowledgementsReferences1. IntroductionThe specter of unobserved confounding (aka omitted variable bias) is a notorious problem in observational studies. In most observational studies, unless we can reasonably assume that treatment assignment is as-if random as in a natural experiment, we…

A team of scientists found a compact object 40,000 light-years from Earth that is either a very massive neutron star or an itsy-bitsy black hole, but they’re not sure which.Remake this Sci-Fi Film with Peter Capaldi!The so-called mass gap object has a mass between 2.09 and 2.71 times that of our Sun. For a neutron star—the collapsed, superdense core of a star—that would be huge, perhaps even the largest yet known. But for a black hole—an even more compact object, so dense that not even light can escape it—it would be…

By Jocelyn Noveck | Associated Press Two years ago Emerald Fennell stood on the Oscars stage hoisting her writing trophy for “Promising Young Woman,” a scathing look at rape culture and a balancing act of wit, style, shock value, audacity, great acting and pitch-black humor — plus a timely #MeToo message. That’s a lot for a debut film, and we didn’t even mention the best director nomination. Not surprisingly, anticipation has been hot for the writer-director’s next effort (as an actor, she’s already graced a little film…

Endings are hard. That’s particularly true for serialized mystery box TV shows, ones where plentiful juicy secrets hook viewers but the answers often fail to satisfy them. Putting a final bow on a story like that is a unique challenge. That’s part of what makes Servant, the Apple TV Plus psychological thriller helmed by M. Night Shyamalan, so interesting. Whereas many of these shows seem like they’re making it up as they go, Servant had a specific ending in mind. As Shyamalan told me ahead of the most recent season…

Image via Warner Bros. Pictures In the hands of creative geniuses, fantasy worlds can be built to be as sophisticated as the real ones on which they’re based, and at times can be so much better. However, the Harry Potter series missed the mark when it comes to worldbuilding as fans are pointing out on Twitter. David is constantly astonished by how bad the Harry Potter worldbuilding is so please drop your favorite nugget of completely nonsensical potter lore here because I’ve forgotten as much as I’ve…

What’s the name of a 1971 classic that established the title hero as the coolest cat on the block? Shaft! And the the sequel that arrived almost 20 years later and topped the box office? Shaft! What about the third installment that released close to two decades later and flopped spectacularly? Shaft! You’re damn right. MGM, Paramount, and Warner Bros. all handled one installment each, but for some reason, they couldn’t come up with a different title for any of them. Richard Roundtree inhabited the role of John Shaft…

Dwayne Johnson’s entry into the DC Extended Universe will happen with the super-antihero film Black Adam, which releases worldwide this week. And the first reviews for the action extravaganza are out, which call the film ‘neither the best, nor the worst’. The consensus is that the film is action-packed and fun and Dwayne makes a grand debut in the superhero genre, but the film lacks depth and can get stale soon. Also read: Black Adam trailer: Watch Dwayne Johnson in action as DC Comics villainBlack Adam is the origin…

Peel away the politics and the passion, the doomsaying and the denialism, and climate change largely boils down to this: energy. To avoid the chances of catastrophic climate change while ensuring the world can continue to grow — especially for poor people who live in chronically energy-starved areas — we’ll need to produce ever more energy from sources that emit little or no greenhouse gases. It’s that simple — and, of course, that complicated. Zero-carbon sources of renewable energy like wind and solar have seen…

In James Thierrée’s beguiling stage shows, the furniture has a life of its own: brasserie chairs duet with their sitters and velvet sofas gobble people up. So it is a little disconcerting to share a corner table in a Parisian cafe with this ringleader of the unexpected who is swivelling around in his seat. But Thierrée is just on the lookout for his morning coffee, he explains, swinging back with a raspy laugh.Thierrée has the air of an inventor with his white jacket, round specs and floppy fringe of salt and pepper…